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英文文献：Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union-在欧洲货币联盟之前，新兴市场的利率趋同
英文文献作者：Michael Fr?mmel,Robinson Kruse
英文文献摘要：
In this paper we analyze the convergence of interest rates in the European Monetary System (EMS) in a framework of changing persistence. This allows us to estimate the exact date of full convergence from the data. A change in persistence means that a time series switches from stationarity to non-stationarity, or vice versa. It is often argued that due to the specific historical situation in the EMS the interest rate differential was non-stationary before the full convergence of interest rates was achieved and stationary afterwards. Our empirical results suggest that the convergence date has been very different for Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Italy and are in line with the conclusions one would draw from a narrative approach. We compare three different estimators for the convergence date and find that the results are quite robust. Our results therefore stress the importance of credibility for monetary policy.
本文在一个持续变化的框架下，分析了欧洲货币体系利率的收敛性。这使我们能够估计数据完全收敛的确切日期。持久性的变化意味着时间序列从平稳性切换到非平稳性，反之亦然。通常认为，由于新兴市场特定的历史情况，在利率完全趋同之前，利率差异是非平稳的，而在利率完全趋同之后，利率差异是平稳的。我们的实证结果表明，比利时、法国、荷兰和意大利的趋同日期非常不同，这与人们将从叙述方法中得出的结论一致。我们比较了三种不同的收敛估计量，发现结果是相当稳健的。因此，我们的研究结果强调了货币政策可信度的重要性。
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