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JP 摩根：中国经济数据展望(英文)
China data outlook
Macro policy stayed on track despite global market turmoil
09.03 10页
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China’s growth has been expected to moderate in response to government measures
aimed at putting the brakes on investment spending. However, the jury is
out as to how much the economy is slowing. The pace of retail sales and exports
has remained robust. Although investment spending and industrial production
were soft in July, this followed several months of strong gains. In particular, the
pace of bank lending, which should be a barometer of investment spending, accelerated
in July. In addition, the headline CPI surged 5.6%oya in July, up from
4.4% in June. This was the fastest monthly headline inflation rate since February
1997. However, after stripping out the food component, nonfood CPI inflation
edged lower to 0.9%oya in July, compared to June’s 1.0%, highlighting that the
spike in headline CPI was still driven by food prices. With largely stable nonfood
prices, we look for gradual moderation in the headline rate toward year end,
though this is taking longer than we expected earlier, partly because of the recent
floods. We have revised full-year 2007 CPI forecast to 3.8%y/y (originally 3.3%).
Policymakers probably were not satisfied with signs of economic moderation in
the July activity data. At the same time, officials likely were concerned that the
soaring stock market will be fueled by a further inflow from bank deposits now
that real deposit rates have fallen into negative territory. Consequently, China’s
central bank bucked the trend toward easier global monetary policy last month,
raising its key lending and deposit rates for the fourth time this year. While
policymakers are closely watching global financial markets
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