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Inflation in advanced and many emerging
market economies has remained remarkably
subdued over the past two years
despite a significant rise in commodity
prices, strong growth, and a broadly accommodating
monetary policy stance in the major
currency areas. Is this situation sustainable or
does it foreshadow unwelcome inflation surprises
in the near future? Some analysts have
argued that low and stable inflation reflects
more intense global competition, which prevents
firms from raising prices and puts downward
pressures on wages in many sectors.1 If so,
and given that lower-cost producers in emerging
markets and developing countries will continue
to integrate into the global trading system, these
forces are likely to ensure low inflation in the
foreseeable future, reminiscent of the secular
deflation associated with broad productivity
increases during the classical gold standard in
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