英文文献:Sterilisation, Capital Mobility and Interest Rate Determination for East Asia-东亚的冲销、资本流动和利率决定
英文文献作者:Tony Cavoli
英文文献摘要:
This paper uses a simple open economy interest rate determination model to empirically examine an important aspect of pre-crisis monetary and exchange rate policy. It investigates whether sterilisation of the reserve effects of capital inflows helped keep interest rates sufficiently high that they may have prolonged the inflow of capital. Despite the use of a pre-crisis sample in this study, the issues in this paper have relevance today given the recent trend in foreign capital inflow for Asia. The empirical section is concerned with the effect of reserve flows on the interest rate and is divided into two parts. The first tests for a contemporaneous effect of the basic model using OLS and IV methods. The second generalises the model to assess for lagged effects by way of VAR analysis. The results show that there are some contemporaneous effects of sterilisation on the domestic interest rate though the effects are stronger when estimating the lagged model.
本文利用一个简单的开放经济利率决定模型对危机前货币和汇率政策的一个重要方面进行了实证研究。它调查了冲销资本流入的储备效应是否有助于将利率维持在足够高的水平,从而延长了资本流入的时间。尽管在本研究中使用了危机前的样本,但鉴于外资流入亚洲的近期趋势,本文中的问题在今天具有相关性。实证部分是关于准备金流动对利率的影响,并被分为两个部分。首先用OLS和IV方法检验基本模型的同期效应。第二部分通过VAR分析对模型进行概括,以评估滞后效应。结果表明,在对滞后模型进行估计时,冲销对国内利率有一定的同期效应,但效应较强。


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