Commodity Windfalls, Democracy, and External Debt-商品横财、民主和外债

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英文文献：Commodity Windfalls, Democracy, and External Debt-商品横财、民主和外债
英文文献作者：Rabah Arezki,Markus Bruckner
英文文献摘要：
We examine the effects that revenue windfalls from international commodity price booms have on external debt in a panel of 93 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that increases in the international prices of exported commodity goods lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that in autocracies commodity windfalls lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in government expenditures. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following commodity windfalls the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.

我们在一个由93个国家组成的小组中考察了1970年至2007年期间，国际大宗商品价格暴涨带来的意外收入对外债的影响。我们的主要发现是，出口商品的国际价格上涨导致民主国家的外债水平显著下降，而专制国家的外债水平却没有显著下降。为了解释这一结果，我们表明，在专制国家，商品横财导致政府支出在统计上和数量上显著增加。另一方面，在民主国家，政府支出没有显著增加。我们还发现，在大宗商品横财之后，民主国家的外债违约风险下降，但专制国家的外债违约风险显著上升。

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