Citigroup-07ÄêÏ°ëÄêÃÀ¹úÖ÷ÒªÏû·ÑÆ·ÐÐÒµÕ¹Íû 40Ò³

ÏàËÆÎļþ »»Ò»Åú

ÊÇ ·ñ +2 ÂÛ̳±Ò

kÈË ²ÎÓë»Ø´ð

¾­¹ÜÖ®¼ÒËÍÄúÒ»·Ý

Ó¦½ì±ÏÒµÉúרÊô¸£Àû!

ÇóÖ°¾ÍҵȺ

ÕÔ°²¶¹ÀÏʦ΢ÐÅ£ºzhaoandou666

¾­¹ÜÖ®¼ÒÁªºÏCDA

ËÍÄúÒ»¸öÈ«¶î½±Ñ§½ðÃû¶î~ !

Á¢¼´ÁìÈ¡

¸ÐлÄú²ÎÓëÂÛ̳ÎÊÌâ»Ø´ð

¾­¹ÜÖ®¼ÒËÍÄúÁ½¸öÂÛ̳±Ò£¡

+2 ÂÛ̳±Ò

Citigroup-07ÄêÏ°ëÄêÃÀ¹úÖ÷ÒªÏû·ÑÆ·ÐÐÒµÕ¹Íû

21 September 2007 ª¥ 40 pages

CIR Consumer Discretionary 2H07 Playbook
Our Top Plays in a Slowing Environment

161777.pdf (372.61 KB, ÐèÒª: 6 ¸öÂÛ̳±Ò)

2007-10-6 15:43:00 ÉÏ´«

Citigroup-07ÄêÏ°ëÄêÃÀ¹úÖ÷ÒªÏû·ÑÆ·ÐÐÒµÕ¹Íû 40Ò³
ÐèÒª: 6 ¸öÂÛ̳±Ò  [¹ºÂò]

Contents
Decelerating Economy Drives Recommendation of Selective Exposure 4
Current Economic Slowdown Unlikely To End 4
Slowdown Fuels Our Cautious View of Holiday 4
Further Downside Implied by Our Peak-to-Trough Model... 4
¡­But Potentially Offset by Fed Easing Which Could Boost Stocks 4
Top Picks for Soft-Landing Along with Most-Defensive Names 5
Soft Landing Likely But Other Outcomes Possible 5
Our Top CIR Consumer Discretionary Soft Landing, Recession, & Expansion
Stock Picks 6
Prior Market Corrections Inform 2H07 Outlook 8
Is Comparative Period Comparable to Current? 9
Current Turmoil Uncertain, But Earlier Peak-to-Trough
Measurement a Guidepost 9
Peak-to-Trough Methodology Applied to S&P Consumer
Discretionary 10
CIR Consumer Discretionary Valuation Multiples Could Contract 20-
30% 11
Our Peak-to-Trough Performance Analysis Methodology 12
Relative Consumer Discretionary Findings 15
Monetary Policy May Offer Some Reprieve 16
Substantial Easing Not Needed But Additional Quarter Point Likely
Before Yr End 16
Positive Implications of Lowering Interest Rates 16
Financials and Consumer Discretionary Outperformed During
Recent Easings 17
CIR Consumer Discretionary Segment Review 17
Apparel & Footwear Manufacturing and Athletic Footwear Retail: Stocks
Have Pulled Back, But Still Room For Downside¡­ We View NKE as
Most Defensive Name 17
Apparel & Footwear Manufacturers and Athletic Footwear Retail
Generally Outperformed During Easing 19
Broadline Retailers: Neutral to Slightly Positive Outlook 19
Broadline/Food&Drug/Home Improvement Retailers: Sector
Outperformed During Easing 20
Hardlines: Office Supply Superstores Likely Fare Best in Recessionary
Scenario 21
Hardlines Retailers Perform In-line With Market During Easing
Cycle 22
Leisure: Higher Priced Vehicles Continue To Face Tough Environment23
Restaurants: Remain Favorably Disposed to Quick-Service Restaurants
(QSR) over Casual Diners 24
Specialty Apparel/Off-Price Retailers: Declining Mall Traffic Drives Our
Selective Posture - Off-Price & Margin Stories Most Appealing 25
Specialty Apparel/Off-Price Retailers Outperformed During Easing27

ɨÂë¼ÓÎÒ À­ÄãÈëȺ

Çë×¢Ã÷£ºÐÕÃû-¹«Ë¾-ְλ

ÒÔ±ãÉóºË½øȺ×ʸñ£¬Î´×¢Ã÷Ôò¾Ü¾ø

·ÖÏí0 ÊÕ²Ø0 »ØÌû

¹Ø¼ü´Ê£ºCitigroup iGroup Group citi Ï°ëÄê ÃÀ¹ú ÐÐÒµ Õ¹Íû Citigroup Ïû·ÑÆ·