Oil prices: The triple-digit barrel 每桶三位数的油价

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Oil prices 油价 The triple-digit barrel 三位数的油价 Are high oil prices here to stay? 油价是否还会持续维持高位？ Jun 15th 2013 |From the print edition SCRATCH the surface of the planet and the chances that hydrocarbons will spew forth appear to grow by the day. This week America’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) released new estimates of the amount of gas in the world’s shale beds. It reckons that there are 7,299 trillion cubic feet, 10% more than its 2011 estimate. The EIA’s estimates for shale oil, not included in the 2011 numbers, are a staggering 345 billion barrels, adding a tenth to the world’s total oil resources. 挖开地表层，碳氢化合物立即喷薄而出，这种情况越来越常见。本周，美国能源信息署发布了最新的全球页岩气储量预测。据估计，全球页岩气储量高达7,299万亿立方英尺，比2011年的预测值高出10%。同时EIA还估算，除去2011年的储量，全球未探明页岩油储量竟然有3450亿桶，占全球石油总资源的十分之一。 Shale oil is already gushing out of the ground in America, displacing imports to the world’s largest consumer. New supply is not yet showing up in prices: Brent crude, the global benchmark, sells for $103 a barrel after averaging $111 in both 2011 and 2012. But Paul Stevens of Chatham House, a think-tank, is among those who see parallels with the price crash of 1986 caused when high prices hit demand and brought forth new sources of supply from the North Sea and Alaska. Are they right? 作为全球最大的石油消费国，美国国内的页岩油早已喷薄而出，开始替代进口石油。目前，新的供应尚未体现在价格上：全球石油基准价格——北海布伦特原油当前价格为103美元，而2011年和2012年均价也不过111美元。然而，英国皇家国际事务研究所的智囊Paul Stevens认为，油价会和1986年一样，由于高油价打击了需求，同时引发了北海和阿拉斯加石油资源的新开发供给，最终导致了油价暴跌。和他持相同观点的人并不在少数。那么，他们对吗？ The most notable recent price surges were rooted in supply shocks in a fractious Middle East. Arab-spring uprisings culminated in the loss of Libyan crude from the markets in 2011 after the outbreak of civil war. Brent hit $127 a barrel. Markets back then were tight. Demand was brisk in emerging markets and even small supply disruptions had a disproportionate effect. A slowdown in China and the euro crisis have since dampened global thirsts. Forecasts see relatively weak demand growth of around 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) in 2013, a little slower than in 2012. 之前，动荡不安的中东局势所引发的供给冲击是油价波动的深层次原因。2011年，利比亚内战爆发后，市场中利比亚原油供应全部中断，阿拉伯之春运动达到了顶点。布伦特原油价格高达每桶127美元。之后的市场依然很紧张。由于新兴市场需求十分旺盛，即便是小规模的供给中断也会导致更大的影响。但中国经济的减速与欧洲债务危机削弱了全球的原油需求。最新预测认为2013年原油需求增长较少，约每天80万桶，比2012年略有放缓。 Saudi Arabia has the swing vote on the oil price. It is happy with oil at around $100 a barrel. The world economy seems able to cope with prices at that level, which also deliver the revenues needed to buy off restive populations. Saudi Arabia boosted output last year to offset any Iranian shortfall as sanctions took hold. Since then, as Libyan crude came back onto the market and supplies of shale oil from North America expanded by at least 1m b/d, the Saudis have cut output by 700,000 b/d. These cuts, and the start up of the Manifa field earlier this year, means that spare capacity, the amount of production that can quickly be brought on stream, is building. 目前，沙特阿拉伯在油价上起着决定性作用。它很乐于见到油价维持在每桶100美元左右。不仅全球经济能够承受起这个价格，并且还能让沙特获得足够的税收支出福利安抚国内不安定的民众。去年，沙特提高了石油产量以此抵消伊朗被制裁后导致的缺口。后来，利比亚重返原油市场，北美页岩油产量也扩张到100万桶/天；自此以后，沙特则削减了每天70万桶的原油输出。沙特削减的输出量，以及今年初动工的迈尼菲油田，意味着这些可以迅速投产的备用产能正在逐步累积。 This might prove useful. Oil markets seem to have forgotten about political risk in the Middle East. According to Energy Aspects, a consultancy, the “geopolitical premium is extremely low”. Yet Iran’s elections and its nuclear ambitions, Syria’s civil war and growing violence in Iraq suggest that plenty of risk remains. 这么做看上去很有效。原油市场似乎已经将中东的政治风险抛之脑后。连咨询机构Energy Aspects都声称“地缘政治风险非常低”。尽管伊朗选举及其核武器计划、叙利亚内战和伊拉克持续升级的暴力事件都显示风险犹存。 As for those new sources of supply, outside America shale additions in places like Brazil, Kazakhstan and Iraq are set to disappoint. And Christof Rühl, BP’s chief economist, points out that in the 1986 oil-price slump demand was actually falling yet producers did not want to shut down vast projects in the North Sea and Alaska; instead they attempted to cut costs and carried on pumping. But shale oil is extracted using hundreds of small wells, so scaling back output is far easier if prices fall. Motorists hoping for some rapid relief from high oil prices may be out of luck. 至于那些新的供给来源，除了美国页岩气以外，巴西、哈萨克斯坦、伊拉克并不尽如人意。BP首席经济学家Christof Rühl认为，1986年石油价格大跌时，需求事实上在大幅下降，但石油生产者并不想关闭北海和阿拉斯加大量的在建项目，他们试图削减开支并继续产油。可页岩油的开采需要数以百计的小油井，一旦油价下跌，缩减产量更容易。因此，司机们希望高油价能够迅速降低可能是遥遥无期了。 http://ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=192748&extra=page%3D1

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