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[财经时事] Chinese growth is producing structural change中国的增长产生了结构变动 [推广有奖]

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http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=42947


David Li our guest wrote on Nov 2nd 2010, 10:11 GMT


IT IS very interesting to note that inside China, people are asking the reverse question: are we too dependent on the world economy?

非常有趣的是,看到中国人在问一个相反的问题:我们太过依赖世界经济了吗?

The truth is that such a pattern of mutual dependency is not to be feared but needs to be become healthier through structural change on both sides. Without the quick rebound and continued growth of the Chinese economy, the world economy would definitely be in worse shape today, given that the Chinese economy sucks in goods and services worth over $1 billion a year. Meanwhile, without the world buying goods assembled in China with parts produced elsewhere, many Chinese workers would have to go back to their farm land and perhaps poverty.

其实,这种相互依存的模式没什么可担心的,但需要通过双方的结构变动使之更健康。鉴于中国经济体在商品和服务方面每年超过10亿美元的吸力,如果没有中国经济的快速反弹和持续增长,今天的世界经济肯定会陷入更糟糕的情况。同时,如果离开世界对用外来部件组装的中国商品的购买力,许多中国民工将被迫返回乡下,或许陷入贫困。

The most important and under-appreciated development is that in China, structural change has taken place, with wages of manual labor going up 20% this year, import growth outpacing export growth, and a trade surplus down to around 4% of GDP this year (from around 10% before 2008). This is not only a result of conscious policies but also of natural market forces—in the words of Hollis B. Chanery, the late development economist, the process of development is the process of structural change. The remaining issue is: when are we going to see decisive policies in the US and other economies to restructure bank balance sheets so that all the extra liquidity from quantitative easing can be converted into more domestic lending to mitigate unemployment and nurture a more solid recovery? Economic restructuring both inside China and in the rest of the world is necessary in order to make the mutual dependency robust and sustainable

最重要也最值得赞赏的发展是中国已经出现了结构变动,体力劳动的薪资今年上涨了20%,进口增长超越出口增长,今年的贸易顺差降到GDP的4%左右(2008年以前约10%)。这不仅是政策的人为结果,也是市场力量的天然结果,用后发展经济学家霍利斯B.钱纳里的话来说,发展的过程就是结构变动的过程。仍成问题的是:我们什么时候才会看到美国和其它经济体的决定性政策能重建银行资产负债表的结构,使所有源自量化宽松政策的额外流动性可以转换成更多的国内贷款,以缓解失业问题,扶持更稳固的复苏?无论是在中国还是在世界其它地区经济转型都是必需的,以便使相互依存强劲而可持续。
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关键词:Structural Producing Chinese Growth produc producing Chinese change growth 中国

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