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英文文献：News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration-新闻、噪音和波动:实证探索
英文文献作者：Olivier J. Blanchard,Jean-Paul L’Huillier,Guido Lorenzoni
英文文献摘要：
We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in agents’ estimates of these fundamentals (noise). We use a simple forward-looking model of consumption to address some methodological issues: structural VARs cannot be used to identify news and noise shocks in the data, but identification is possible via a method of moments or maximum likelihood. Next, we use U.S. data to estimate both our simple model and a richer DSGE model with the same information structure. Our estimates suggest that noise shocks play an important role in short-run consumption fluctuations.
我们从经验上探讨了具有两个基本成分的总体波动模型:主体基于嘈杂的信息源形成对未来的预期，而这些预期在短期内影响支出和产出。我们的目标是将由于基本面的实际变化(新闻)引起的波动与由于代理对这些基本面的估计的暂时错误(噪音)引起的波动分开。我们使用一个简单的前瞻性消费模型来解决一些方法论问题:结构性var不能用于识别数据中的新闻和噪声冲击，但通过矩法或最大似然法可以识别。接下来，我们使用美国的数据来估计我们的简单模型和具有相同信息结构的更丰富的DSGE模型。我们的估计表明，噪音冲击在短期消费波动中发挥了重要作用。
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