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The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit,
or Steamroller?
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
International Finance Discussion Papers
Number 904
September 2007
Contents
1 Introduction 1
2 China as an Engine of Growth: Does the Rest of Asia Still Need an External
Engine? Is it China? 4
2.1 Some Background ....................................................................................................4
2.1.1 China Compared with Other Asian Economies ..........................................4
2.1.2 Patterns of Trade in Asia.............................................................................5
2.2 Growth Accounting..................................................................................................6
2.3 Aggregate Cross-Country Linkages.........................................................................7
2.3.1 Growth Comovements ................................................................................7
2.3.2 Vector Autoregressions (VARs) .................................................................8
3 China as a Conduit of Growth: Is China the Endpoint of a Giant Asian Assembly
Line? 12
3.1 Trade Fragmentation ................................................................................................12
3.2 The Composition of Trade Balances........................................................................15
4 China as a Steamroller: How Is the Rest of Asia Adjusting to China’s Growing
Presence? 17
4.1 Index of Technological Sophistication.....................................................................18
4.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage...........................................................................20
4.3 Displacement of Exports ..........................................................................................22
5 Conclusion 24
Boxes
1 Regional Growth in Service Exports...........................................................................28
2 The Tourism Strategy..................................................................................................30
3 The Philippines Electronics Sector..............................................................................32
4 The Big 3 Asian Automotive Exporters ......................................................................36
5 Foreign Direct Investment by Other Asian Economies in China ................................39
Appendix
Tables
1 Variance Decompositions based on the estimated VAR.............................................43
2 Share of Parts and Components in Exports by 1-Digit SITC Code.............................46
3 Asian Trade Balances with the World.........................................................................47
4 Asian Trade Balances with China vs. Rest of the World ............................................48
5 Percentage of Total Regional Exports to the World by Tech Category ......................49
6 Distribution of Total Exports to the World by Tech Category....................................50
7 Effect of Competition from China on Total Exports...................................................51
Charts
1 Gross Domestic Product..............................................................................................52
2 PPP GDP Per Capita....................................................................................................52
3 Asian Exports ..............................................................................................................53
4 Percent of Trade that is Intraregional ..........................................................................53
5 Real Exports as a Percent of GDP...............................................................................54
6 Percentage Point Contribution of Real Net Exports to GDP Growth..........................54
7 Average Annual Rates of Real GDP Growth ..............................................................55
8 Coefficients from Growth Regressions .......................................................................56
9 Coefficients from Growth Regressions (cont).............................................................57
10 Coefficients from Growth Regressions (cont).............................................................58
11 Coefficients from Growth Regressions (cont).............................................................59
12 Impulse Responses Using Structural VAR (NIEs)......................................................60
13 Impulse Responses Using Structural VAR (ASEAN4)...............................................61
14 Parts and Components as a Percent of Exports of Manufactured Goods: 2005 ..........62
15 Parts and Components as a Percent of Imports of Manufactured Goods: 2005 ..........62
16 Parts and Components as a Percent of Trade in Manufactured Goods: 2005 .............63
17 Revealed Comparative Advantage ..............................................................................64
18 Revealed Comparative Advantage (cont.)...................................................................65
Technical Notes
Data Sources................................................................................................................66
Notes on Methodology ................................................................................................66
3-Digit Products by Technological Category: (SITC Rev.3) ......................................68
1-Digit Products by SITC: (SITC Rev.3) ....................................................................72
Products by Use: (SITC Rev.3)...................................................................................73
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