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瑞银：中国发电厂商－A股首次覆盖 11月14日 68页
I nitiating coverage of A shares
Growth potential fully priced in
We expect ongoing strong power demand growth in China to result in robust
power plant utilisation rates and new investment opportunities. However, we also
think current valuations reflect this, and initiate coverage of China Yangtze Power
(CYPC) with a Neutral rating, and Huaneng Power, Datang International Power
and Huadian Power with Sell ratings.
Margin risks and acquisition uncertainty are the prime concerns
One consequence of strong demand growth is ongoing margin pressure from
higher coal prices. We expect coal prices to increase further in 2008 and 2009, with
only partial compensation from tariff increases. CYPC is not exposed to coal price
risk, but acquisitions of units of the Three Gorges Dam power station could be less
or slower than we have assumed in our forecasts. We think Datang’s planned
chemical investment introduces undesirable earnings risk for the company.
PE and DCF combined valuation approach
We adopt a valuation approach that combines a 12-month forward market-relative
PE multiple and a three-stage DCF-based NPV estimate, each with a 50%
weighting. We think this approach acknowledges both fundamental valuations and
the effect of strong liquidity on the A-share market.
Downside or only limited upside potential to our price targets
Our price targets are: Rmb18.30 for CYPC (2.2% upside potential); Rmb10.40 for
Huaneng (26.4% downside potential); Rmb14.10 for Datang (1.9% downside
potential); and Rmb5.30 for Huadian (36.1% downside potential).
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