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英文文献：Global Agricultural Trade Liberalization and its Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa-全球农业贸易自由化及其对撒哈拉以南非洲的影响
英文文献作者：J. Alexander Nuetah
英文文献摘要：
This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), on the world market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and the US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net food-importing countries will experience an increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU Sugar Protocol and the US’s Africa Growth and Opportunity Act initiative will become losers as preferences are eroded due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities
本文分析了农业贸易自由化对撒哈拉以南非洲地区的潜在影响。我们使用农业贸易和政策模拟模型来估计主要在美国和欧盟的农业贸易自由化对世界农产品市场价格的潜在影响。然后，我们使用估计的价格变化来评估这些改革对净粮食进口商以及其他撒哈拉以南非洲国家的影响，这些国家享受与欧盟和美国的优惠贸易协定。结果表明，撒哈拉以南非洲进口的所有商品的世界市场价格预计将上升，而该区域主要出口商品的价格将下降或保持不变。鉴于主要粮食商品的价格预计将会上涨，粮食净进口国的进口费用将会增加，从而导致福利损失。撒哈拉以南非洲的主要食糖出口国受益于优惠协议，如欧盟食糖议定书和美国的非洲增长与机会法案倡议，但由于全球自由化，优惠待遇受到侵蚀，它们将成为输家。因此，预计该地区将普遍成为当前世贸组织改革模式的净输家
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