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花旗銀行2014年中匯率市場技術分析報告
In lieu of a regular Weekly Roundup,attached is a chart pack featuring our mid-year cross market thoughtshighlighting our big picture views on:
• FX: Weretain our broad based bullish USD view particularly when it comes tothe DXY, EURUSD (We continue to believe that the present set up forEURUSD is very similar to 1998) and USDJPY. GBPUSD is also losingmomentum.
• Techamentals:Our “Techamental” chartssuggest a more positive overall outlook in the US and potentially less benigninflation outlook. If correct, this dynamic will likely “test” the Fed in thecoming months.
• FixedIncome: We continue to believe that US yields are in the processof creating a base before moving higher again. We are particularly focused on 5year and 2 year yields together with the Fed funds rate.
• EquityMarkets: The Equity market (S&P) looks set to continue thegrind higher towards and likely above 2000 although volatility (VXO) hasprobably already bottomed out. In Europe the MIB (Italy) and PSI (Portugal)look constructive overall
• LocalMarkets: In Local Markets, we retain a constructive view of LATAMcurrencies in particular MXN and BRL.
• Commodities:The long-term picture remains favourable for Gold,although for the time being further consolidation may be likely as equitiescontinue to rally
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