This book describes the important psychological biases that influence investment decisions. By recognizing, understanding, and avoiding these problems, investors can minimize the negative effects on their wealth.
Table of Contents:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION xi
Chapter 1 Your Behavior Matters! 2
Why Haven’t I Heard of This Before? 4
A Simple Illustration 4
Prediction 5
Behavioral Finance 8
The Investment Environment 8
Endnotes 10
1 NOT THINKING CLEARLY 11
Chapter 2 Overconfidence 12
Becoming Overconfident 14
Illusion of Knowledge 14
Illusion of Control 18
Recipe for Disaster? 19
Endnotes 20
Chapter 3 Overconfidence and Investing 22
Overconfidence: A Case Study1 23
Overconfidence and Trade Frequency 25
Gender Differences 25
Trading Too Much 26
Overconfidence and Risk 28
Overconfidence and Experience 29
Mutual Funds 30
Overconfidence and the Internet 30
Summing Up 31
Endnotes 32
Chapter 4 Status Quo—Or What I Own Is Better! 34
Endowment Effect 35
Endowment and Investing 36
Status Quo Bias 37
Attachment Bias 40
Overcoming These Biases 41
Endnotes 43
InvestMadness-00 Fnt 6/1/01 3:22 PM Page vii2 EMOTIONS RULE 45
Chapter 5 Seeking Pride and Avoiding Regret 46
Disposition Effect 47
Do We Really Sell Winners? 49
Selling Winners Too Soon and Holding Losers
Too Long 51
The Disposition Effect and the Media 51
Avoiding the Avoiding of Regret 52
In Summary 54
Endnotes 55
Chapter 6 Double or Nothing 56
House-Money Effect 57
Snake-Bit (Risk-Aversion) Effect 58
Break-Even Effect 59
Would You Buy This IPO? 60
The Tech Bubble 62
Endnotes 64
Chapter 7 Social Aspects of Investing 66
Sharing Investment Knowledge 67
Moving with the Herd 68
Speed Is of the Essence (Not) 69
Investment Clubs 71
Beardstown Ladies 71
Investment Club Performance 72
Investment Clubs and Social Dynamics 73
Summing Up 74
Endnotes 75
3 FUNCTIONING OF THE BRAIN 77
Chapter 8 Mental Accounting 78
Mental Budgeting 80
Matching Costs to Benefits 80
Aversion to Debt 82
Sunk-Cost Effect 82
Economic Impact 84
Mental Accounting and Investing 84
Endnotes 86
VIII INVESTMENT MADNESS Table of contents
InvestMadness-00 Fnt 6/1/01 3:22 PM Page viiiChapter 9 Mental Accounting and Diversification 88
Mental Accounting and Portfolios 89
Risk Perceptions 91
Risk Perception in the Real World 96
Building Behavioral Portfolios 96
Summing Up 98
Endnotes 99
Chapter 10 That’s Not the Way I Remember It 100
Memory and Investment Decisions 102
Cognitive Dissonance 103
Cognitive Dissonance and Investing 104
Cognitive Dissonance and the Steadman Funds 105
Memory and Socialization 106
Reference Points 107
Summing Up 109
Endnotes 110
Chapter 11 What I Know Is Better 112
Representativeness 113
Representativeness and Investing 114
Familiarity 116
Familiarity Breeds Investment 117
Familiarity Breeds Investment Problems 119
Endnotes 121
4 INVESTING AND THE INTERNET 123
Chapter 12 The Internet (Psycho) Investor 124
The Rise of the Internet Investor 125
Amplifying Psychological Biases 126
Information and Control 126
Online Trading and Overconfidence 128
Advertising—Increasing the Biases 129
Online Trading and Performance 130
Day Traders—The Extreme Case 130
Summing Up 132
Endnotes 133
INVESTMENT MADNESS Table of contents IX
InvestMadness-00 Fnt 6/1/01 3:22 PM Page ixChapter 13 Exuberance on (and about) the Net 134
A Rose.com by Any Other Name 135
A Bubble Burst 137
The More Things Change… 138
The Boiler Room Goes Online 140
Endnotes 143
5 WHAT CAN I DO ABOUT IT? 145
Chapter 14 Self-Control, or the Lack of It! 146
Short-Term versus Long-Term Focus 148
Controlling Ourselves 148
Rules of Thumb 148
Environment Control 149
Self-Control and Saving 150
IRAs 151
401(k) Plans 151
Self-Control and Investing 152
Self-Control and Dividends 153
Summing Up 155
Endnotes 156
Chapter 15 Battling Your Biases 158
Strategy 1: Understand Your Psychological Biases 159
Not Thinking Clearly 159
Letting Emotions Rule 161
Functioning of the Brain 162
Strategy 2: Know Why You Are Investing 163
Strategy 3: Have Quantitative Investment Criteria 165
Strategy 4: Diversify 166
Strategy 5: Control Your Investing Environment 166
Additional Rules of Thumb 168
In Conclusion