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英文文献：Real Options Analysis in Appraisal of Commercial Property Development-实物期权分析在商业地产开发评估中的应用
英文文献作者：T. O. Ayodele,A. Olaleye
英文文献摘要：
Purpose: This paper examined the application of real option analysis to real estate development (RED) appraisal in an emerging African market. It examined the effects of flexibility types on RED appraisal outcomes and compared the appraisal outputs with results obtained from the traditional NPV model.Design/methods: Using data of four case studies; three commercial and one residential property development, the study compared the results of the traditional NPV appraisal outputs under three scenarios of most optimistic, most likely and most pessimistic against the results obtained from the real option analysis using the Samuelson McKean Formula. The options examined were the option to delay/defer and vertically expand development.Findings: The results showed that the use of the DCF (NPV) traditional model favours a stable and optimistic market; with positive trends and forecast. Thus, during unanticipated market downturns, investors might be exposed to the greater level of downside risk when RED investments are appraised based on the traditional models only. This implies the needs to encourage the adoption of the real option models which guarantee better appraisal of RED investment even during the period of unexpected market downturns.Practical Implication: Based on evidences from an emerging market, the paper gives a further insight on the adoption real option analysis in RED appraisal in comparison with outputs obtained from the traditional DCF appraisal models.Originality: The paper is one of the few attempts that seek to demonstrate the practical application of real option analysis in practice, particularly from an emerging African market.
目的:本文研究了不动产期权分析在新兴非洲市场房地产开发(RED)评估中的应用。研究了柔性类型对红色评估结果的影响，并将评估结果与传统NPV模型的结果进行了比较。设计/方法:使用四个案例研究的数据;在三种最乐观、最可能和最悲观的情况下，研究比较了传统NPV评估结果与使用萨缪尔森麦肯公式进行实物期权分析的结果。所研究的选项是延迟/推迟和垂直扩展开发的选项。结果:使用DCF (NPV)传统模型有利于市场的稳定和乐观;有积极的趋势和预测。因此，在未预料到的市场低迷时期，当仅根据传统模型评估红色投资时，投资者可能面临更大的下行风险。这意味着，有必要鼓励采用实物期权模型，这种模型可以确保即使在市场意外低迷时期，也能更好地评估红色投资。实践意义:基于一个新兴市场的证据，本文通过与传统DCF评估模型的结果对比，对采用实物期权分析进行红色评估有了进一步的认识。原创性:这篇论文是试图证明实物期权分析在实践中的实际应用的少数尝试之一，特别是在一个新兴的非洲市场。
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