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英文文献：Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices-钱在非洲重要吗?货币政策对产出和价格的长期和短期影响的新经验
英文文献作者：Asongu Simplice
英文文献摘要：
Purpose – While in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. In this paper, we examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period 1987-2010. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – But for slight exceptions, the tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence. Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception Hypothesis 1 is valid. Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real GDP output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical Implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country/regional specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity, caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.
目的——尽管在发达经济体，货币政策的变化在短期内影响实体经济活动，但在长期内只影响价格，但这些趋势是否适用于发展中国家的问题仍有待讨论。在这篇论文中，我们研究了货币政策对经济活动的影响，使用了1987-2010年间通胀混乱的非洲国家迄今为止大量失业的金融动态。设计/方法/方法-使用VECMs和简单格兰杰因果模型框架内的var分别估计长期和短期影响。还使用了一系列健壮性检查来确保规范和结果的一致性。发现——但有轻微例外，在货币政策的独立性和依赖性下，被检验的假设是有效的。假设1:货币政策变量在长期内影响价格，但在短期内不会。对于该假设的前半部分(长期维度)，货币政策变量(深度、效率、活动和规模)的永久性变化会长期影响价格的永久性变化。但在不均衡情况下，只有深度和规模等金融动态基本面因素才能显著地将通胀调整为协整关系。就该假设的后半段(短期观点)而言，货币政策在短期内不会对价格产生压倒性的影响。因此，假设1是有效的。假设2:货币政策变量影响短期产出，但不影响长期产出。就该假设的短期维度而言，只有深度和规模的金融动态在短期内影响实际GDP产出。就长期而言，货币政策的中立性得到了证实。因此，这个假设也是广泛有效的。实际影响-讨论对政策的广泛影响。除其他外:货币和商业周期的长期中性、信贷扩张和通货膨胀趋势、通货膨胀目标和货币政策独立性的影响。国家/地区的具体影响，研究结果调和正在进行的辩论的方式，对抗过剩流动性的措施，警告和未来的研究方向也被讨论。创意/价值——通过使用迄今为止未被使用的大量金融动态(广泛反映了货币政策)，我们为货币的经验主义做出了重大贡献。分析的结论对关于货币作为发展中国家经济活动工具的重要性的学术和政策辩论是有价值的贡献。
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