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瑞银集团7月11日研报：中国对热钱的担忧程度应该有多大？（How Much Should China Be Worried about “Hot Money”） pdf格式12页，全英文
China’s foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate at a quite substantial pace in recent months, and the latest data show that “hot money” inflows may have accelerated. This and the recent currency market turmoil in other economies have led to an explosion of discussions and concerns about “hot money” in China. A wide range of estimates on the size of the hot money inflows have flocked to the public arena and alarm bells about possible large outflows rang loud. Just how much should China worry about “hot money”inflows and outflows?
Here is what we think:
“Hot money” inflows have risen rapidly in recent months, but the overall size ($300-$400 billion) is not nearly as large as some believe. While the incentives for all sorts of FX inflows to China have risen, they will not likely move out en mass at a certain pre-determined RMB/USD exchange rate and do not seem to be associated with the equity market. The speed of the overall FX accumulation has and will continue to complicate monetary policy and undermine the macro policy objective, but its impact may be felt more indirectly, as structural problems in the medium-term. Since China wants to retain its exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence, stricter capital control measures may be in the pipeline.
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