09.19麥格理 台灣投資報告

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[UserCP=1]2008.09.19 Taiwan Weekly Essentials - A list of hideaways


A
list of hideaways


 

Market
insights
§                         
In
this report, we examine stocks under our coverage (non-financial companies with
market cap above US$1.0bn) and identify those that can now be considered deep
value and offer a place to hide with limited share price downside amid the
current market turbulence. We re-iterate our preference for tech hardware and
telecoms. Our recommended picks from our list of hideaways are Chunghwa Telecom,
Asustek, Lite-On Tech, Wistron and HTC.
Hot Pot: Android
smartphone – aka ‘Google phone’
§                         
The
very first Android platform based smartphone – or the ‘Google phone’, made by
HTC, is expected to be launched by T-Mobile (US) in New York on 23 September.
Industry sources lead us to expect the phone to be available on shelves in
October with shipments of 600K in 4Q08. We expect the Google phone to be an
important growth driver for HTC. In the short term, it will give HTC more media
exposure and increase its global profile.
Special focus: Taiwan
tourism
§                         
What
hinders Chinese tourists? A
mere 270 Chinese tourists are arriving in Taiwan daily, way below the limit of
3,000. We provide an analysis and identify three key barriers to Chinese tourist
arrivals; problems with chartered flights, travel restrictions and a
time-consuming visa application process. In addition, the Japanese and domestic
segments keep declining YTD. We retain our cautious view on the Taiwan tourism
sector.
Key stock idea: Taiwan
Fertilizer
§                         
Dual
engines running out of steam:
We downgrade Taiwan Fertilizer to Neutral from Outperform with new target price
of NT$70 (previously NT$113). In our view, the company’s dual growth engines of
fertilizer and property are running out of steam as urea prices are peaking
while property presales are slowing. We see limited catalysts for the short
term, which should affect the share price performance. We will revisit this
company once urea prices rally strongly or property sentiment
improves.





Taiwan Fertilizer – share price
does not reflect potential urea price
drop






Source: Macquarie Research,
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2008-9-22 14:14:00 上传

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