【管理科学】如何做这题目？

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【管理科学】如何做这题目？
A construction company has a $1 million construction contract to complete a building by March 2014, but is experiencing delays due to the complex design. The managers have to make a decision on whether to continue as at present or to employ specialist engineering consultants at a cost of $200 000.
一家建筑公司100万美元的施工合同，完成建筑由2014年3月，但正经历着由于复杂的设计延误。
管理者必须做出是否继续担任目前或聘请专业工程顾问公司以20万美元费用的决定。

If the company continues as at present, it estimates there is only a 30% chance of completing the building on time, and that the delay could be, one, two or three months, with equal probability.
如果该公司继续截至目前，它估计只有30％的按时完成建筑物的机会，延迟完工可以是一个，两个或三个月后，以相同的概率。

If the building is late, there are penalties of $100 000 for each month’s delay or part of a month.
如果建筑物延迟完工了，还有每个月的延迟处罚每一个月 10万美元 。

The managers believe that if they employ specialist engineering consultants, their chances of completing the contract on time will be trebled. 该经理认为，如果他们聘请专业工程顾问 ，完成了合同时间的机会将增加两倍。

But if the building is still late, it would be only one or two months late, with equal probability.
但如果建设仍晚了，那就只有一个或两个月中下旬，以相同的概率。

Required:
(i) Draw a decision tree diagram to represent this decision problem including  probabilities, revenues and penalties;      
画决策树图来表示这一决策问题，包括概率，收入和处罚;

(ii) Analyse the tree using the expected value techniques and write a short report to managers, with reasons and comments, recommending which decision to make.
采用expected value techniques说明原因和意见，建议 决定。


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关键词：管理科学 管理科 Construction Probability Engineering contract building continue complex company

做了一天数学， 晕了无法想这问题了 求高手帮帮我！

kychan 发表于 2015-5-15 21:47
做了一天数学， 晕了无法想这问题了 求高手帮帮我！

呵，我觉得您可以@一下“学院派福尔摩斯”这个ID。他是专门负责工商管理答疑的。

这个有意思，我来找我同事做做看