【Andrew Marshall】谜一般的未来学家

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Andrew Marshall
安德鲁·马歇尔

The quiet American
沉静的美国人        

An enigmatic futurist at last calls it quits
谜一般的未来学家终于宣布退休      
HE RARELY speaks in public and almost never to the press. Most of his reports are secret. A historian once asked if even his brain was classified. But for over four decades Andrew Marshall’s judgments, emanating from a small office in the Pentagon, have guided American defence policy. Or so, at least, his supporters say.

安德鲁·马歇尔很少公开讲话，而且几乎不接受媒体采访。报告也大多属于机密。有位历史学家就曾发问是否连他的大脑也是官方机密。然而其在五角大楼的小办公室里提出的意见已经指引了美国的国防政策四十余年。至少，他的支持者们如是说。
        
Mr Marshall, now 93, headed the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), known as the Pentagon’s internal think-tank, from its creation in 1973 to his retirement on January 2nd. Such was his longevity and wisdom that some defence cognoscenti took to calling him “Yoda”, after the character from “Star Wars”. The nickname is also a reference to his tutoring of influential scholars and officials. This coterie of experts, who refer to themselves as alumni of “St Andrew’s Prep”, speak of their inscrutable teacher with awe.

马歇尔现年93岁，自从1973年美国国防部净评估办公室（ONA）创立便受其领导直至今年1月2日退休。美国国防部净评估办公室就是众所周知的国防部内部智库。他长寿而有智慧，有些国防界专家开始习惯称呼他为“尤达”。这个昵称出自电影《星际大战》的一个角色，同时意指他培养了有影响力的学者和官员。这些专家形成了一个圈子，他们把安德鲁·马歇尔看做一所学校，而他们就是圣安德鲁个人学校的校友。每每提到这位神秘的老师，他们便心怀敬畏。

In a new book on Mr Marshall two of his acolytes, Andrew Krepinevich and Barry Watts, compare him to such foreign-policy luminaries as Henry Kissinger and James Schlesinger. Tasked with considering emerging trends and long-term strategy, the ONA has been credited with foreseeing the demise of the Soviet Union and the rise of China. But Mr Marshall is perhaps most noted for his belief that warfare is subject to dramatic change when new technologies combine with doctrinal and operational innovation to create a “revolution in military affairs” (RMA). In the 1980s he predicted a new RMA driven by technologies such as advanced sensors, precision-guided weapons and computer networks.

在论及马歇尔的新书里，他的两位助手安德鲁·克里潘尼维奇（Andrew Krepinevich）和巴里·沃茨（Barry Watts）将他比作外交名人亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）和詹姆斯·施莱辛格（James Schlesinger）。在综合考虑新兴趋势与长期政策后，美国国防部净评估办公室已经成功预见了苏联的解体和中国的崛起。但最为闻名的应该是马歇尔的如下观点：当理论与实践的创新同科技相结合而形成军事革命（RMA）时，战争成败将取决于这种剧变。上个世纪八十年代，他预言了未来由超级探测器，精确制导武器，计算机网络等科技手段推进的新军事革命。
        
Most Americans have never heard of Mr Marshall, but his ideas have drawn attention far beyond America’s shores. Chinese and Russian military strategists pore over his work, which often portrays their countries as significant threats. In an interview with The Economist in 2012, General Chen Zhou, who has written several of China’s defence white papers, said: “We studied RMA exhaustively. Our great hero was Andy Marshall in the Pentagon. We translated every word he wrote.”
        
多半美国人从未听说过马歇尔，但他的思想却吸引了海内外的关注。中国与俄罗斯的战略家均会仔细研读他的作品。这些作品多将这两国描述成重大威胁。2012年，起草过数份中国国防白皮书的少将陈舟在接受《经济学人》采访时提到：“我们全面学习了军事革命。五角大楼的安德鲁·马歇尔就是我们的伟人。我们翻译了他作品的每个字。”

Much of this admiration seems genuine, but money may also play a role. “Chen knows that Marshall is good for his budgets,” says Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank. The same could be said of Mr Marshall’s American devotees. The ONA relies on a small network of outside contractors and individuals, often alumni of St Andy’s, to provide analysis. One large recipient of its cash is the Centre for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a think-tank that is led by Mr Krepinevich and once employed Mr Watts.

这些赞美之词看似真诚，但也有金钱的作用。布鲁金斯学会智囊团的乔纳森·波拉克（Jonathan Pollack）说：“陈舟明白马歇尔有助于他实现国防预算。”马歇尔在美国的支持者也有相同目的。美国国防部净评估办公室依靠外界合同方和个人组成的小网络提供分析报告。这些人通常都是圣安德鲁学校的校友。而其资金则由曾经雇用过沃茨，现在又由克里潘尼维奇领导的智囊团美国战略与预算评估中心主要接收。


        
The less starry-eyed claim that Mr Marshall hedged his predictions and exaggerated threats. He may have outdone the CIA in noting the burden of military spending on the Soviet economy, but he also saw the doomed state as an enduring menace. His dark view of China strikes some as alarmist. And his thoughts are not always original—the RMA, for example, was a Soviet concept. As a result, his influence is probably overstated: only one of the 12 defence secretaries under whom he served makes more than a perfunctory reference to him in his memoirs, notes Michael Desch, a professor at the University of Notre Dame.

现实点儿说，马歇尔的预言是双面下注，夸大威胁。就针对苏联经济体的军事开销来说，他可能已经超过了中央情报局（CIA），但他却仍将这个前景不妙的国家看作永久的威胁。而他有关中国的负面论说也被一些人看做杞人忧天。他的思想观点并非全然原创，比如军事革命便是苏联的一个概念。因此，他的影响力或许言过其实了。圣母大学的迈克尔·德实（Michael Desch）表示，马歇尔效力的十二位国防大臣中，有十一人只是对他的回忆录做了敷衍的参考。

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