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英文文献：Rice Trade Protectionism Versus Liberalization in Nigeria: A CGE Analysis of Economic and Welfare Effects-尼日利亚的大米贸易保护主义与自由化:经济和福利影响的CGE分析
英文文献作者：Obi-Egbedi, Ogheneruemu,Okoruwa, Victor O.,Yusuf, Sulaiman A.,Adenegan, Kemisola O.,Alarudeen, Aminu
英文文献摘要：
Nigeria’s rice trade has been characterized by intermittent shifts between protectionist and liberalization trade policies over the years and little is known about the effects of these reforms on the entire economy. Past studies on Nigeria have only assessed the policies within the partial equilibrium framework. This study uses a static computable general equilibrium model to assess the effect of protectionist policy of 80% tariff increase and liberalization policy of 5% tariff reduction on production sectors, macroeconomic aggregates and households’ welfare in Nigeria. Simulation results reveal that output in the rice and other agriculture sectors increased more, by about 1%, under the liberalized policy than protectionist policy. Manufacturing and services sector increased in labor, composite price and returns to capital by less than 1% while the same fell under the protectionist policy. Almost all macroeconomic aggregates fell under both policies but with a greater magnitude under the protectionist policy. Wage rate increased under the liberalized policy only, by less than 1%. Although rural households’ incomes increased under protectionist policy, social welfare declined under both policies but was less with the 5% reduction in tariff. Hence this policy was recommended for adoption in order to increase growth of sectors and minimize welfare losses to households.
多年来，尼日利亚大米贸易的特点是在贸易保护主义政策和贸易自由化政策之间断断续续地转换，人们对这些改革对整个经济的影响知之甚少。过去对尼日利亚的研究只是在部分均衡框架内评估政策。本研究使用静态可计算的一般均衡模型来评估关税提高80%的保护主义政策和关税降低5%的自由化政策对尼日利亚生产部门、宏观经济总量和家庭福利的影响。模拟结果显示，在自由化政策下，大米和其他农业部门的产量比保护主义政策增加了约1%。在贸易保护主义政策下，制造业和服务业在劳动力、综合价格和资本回报率方面的增长都不到1%。几乎所有的宏观经济总量都属于这两种政策，但属于保护主义政策的规模更大。工资率仅在自由化政策下增加了不到1%。虽然在保护主义政策下，农村家庭的收入增加了，但在两项政策下，社会福利均有所下降，但关税下调5%后，社会福利有所下降。因此，建议采用这一政策，以便增加各部门的增长，尽量减少家庭的福利损失。
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