Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Selected Abbreviations xv
Overview 1
Global growth is slowing 1
Tighter financing conditions are curbing private capital flows 2
Developing countries have become more vulnerable to external shocks 3
Soaring food and energy prices pose daunting challenges 3
Internationalization of banking offers distinct economic benefits 4
Current challenges require an enlightened international policy response 5
Chapter 1 Prospects for Developing Countries 7
Global growth 9
International trade links 20
The impact of higher commodity prices 22
Key economic risks 28
Notes 30
Reference 30
Chapter 2 Financial Flows to Developing Countries: Recent Trends and Prospects 33
Capital market developments in 2007 34
Private debt market developments 38
Private equity market developments 47
Official development assistance 55
Recent trends in remittances 59
Prospects for capital flows 60
Annex 2A: Commercial debt restructuring 71
Annex 2B: Econometric analysis of aid selectivity 73
Annex 2C: Commercial Debt Restructuring 75
Annex 2D: Debt Restructuring with Official Creditors 77
Agreements with countries 77
Notes 78
References 79
Chapter 3 The Changing Role of International Banking in Development Finance 81
Growth and transformation of international banking activity in developing countries 83
Economic benefits of international banking 92
Transmission of financial shocks through the international banking system 95
Macroeconomic consequences of international banking 99
Policy lessons and agenda 105
Annex 3A: Foreign bank presence has helped ease domestic credit constraint on firms 111
Annex 3B: International banks’ funding strategy and lending to developing countries 112
Annex 3C: The impact of foreign bank presence on the transmission of monetary policy 114
Notes 115
References 116
Appendix: Regional Outlooks 121
East Asia and Pacific 121
Europe and Central Asia 125
Latin America and the Caribbean 131
Middle East and North Africa 137
South Asia 143
Sub-Saharan Africa 149
Notes 155
References 155