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英文文献：Achieving food security and industrial development in Malawi: Are export restrictions the solution?-在马拉维实现粮食安全和工业发展:出口限制是解决办法吗?发展中国家经常限制主食或经济作物的出口，以促进粮食安全或工业发展目标
英文文献作者：Aragie, Emerta,Pauw, Karl,Pernechele, Valentina
英文文献摘要：
Restrictions on exports of staples or cash crops are frequently imposed in developing countries to promote food security or industrial development goals. By diverting production to the local market, these policies reduce prices and increase supply of food or intermediate inputs to the benefit of consumers or downstream industrial users. Although export restrictions reduce aggregate welfare they are attractive to policymakers: governments gain support when they are seen to keep consumer prices low; likewise, politicians are swayed by industrial lobbyists who promise increased value addition in exchange for access to cheaper inputs. This study weighs in on the debate around the desirability of export restrictions by simulating the economy-wide effects of Malawi’s longstanding maize export ban as well as a proposed oilseeds export levy intended to raise value addition in processing sectors. Our results show that while export restrictions may have the desired outcome in the short run, producers respond to weakening market prospects in the longer run by restricting supply, often to the extent that the policies become self-defeating. More specifically, maize export bans only benefit the urban non-poor, with poor farm households experiencing income losses and reduced maize consumption in the long run. The oilseeds export levy is equally ineffective: even when export tax revenues are used to subsidize processors, gains in industrial value addition are outweighed by declining agricultural value addition as the fledgling oilseeds sector is effectively decimated. The policy is further associated with welfare losses among rural households, while urban non-poor households benefit marginally.
通过将生产转移到当地市场，这些政策降低了价格，增加了食品或中间投入的供应，使消费者或下游工业用户受益。尽管出口限制减少了总福利，但它们对政策制定者具有吸引力:当人们认为政府将消费价格保持在低位时，政府就会获得支持;同样，政客们也会受到工业说客的影响，后者承诺增加附加值，以换取更廉价的投入。这项研究通过模拟马拉维长期的玉米出口禁令以及旨在提高加工部门附加值的油籽出口税对整个经济的影响，对出口限制的可取性进行了辩论。我们的研究结果表明，虽然出口限制在短期内可能会产生预期的结果，但从长期来看，生产商通过限制供应来应对市场前景的疲软，往往会达到这种政策会弄巧成拙的程度。更具体地说，玉米出口禁令只对城市非贫困人口有利，从长远来看，贫困农户将遭受收入损失和玉米消费减少。油籽出口税同样无效:即使出口税收入被用来补贴加工商，工业增加值的收益也会被下降的农业增加值所抵消，因为羽翼未振的油籽部门实际上已被摧毁。这项政策还与农村家庭的福利损失有进一步联系，而城市非贫困家庭则只能获得少量福利。
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