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China and the crisis: What’s changed and what’s not?
Implications and opportunities
Issuer: Booz & Co
China and the crisis: What’s changed and what’s not?
Crisis is having a major impact on all businesses and institutions in China and overall growth has slowed substantially
–Large falls in export volumes challenge the role of exports in Chinese growth and creating 20M job losses
–At the same time, large-scale Government stimulus plans; continued buoyancy of consumption and a banking sector that is expanding lending -though challenges about effectiveness and speed
–Chinese financial institutions have been ‘burned’by losses in their overseas investments
But the core fundamentals remain the same
–Growth rate is still attractive, the growth differential vs. developed markets has stayed stable and long-run demographic potential has not changed
–For many multinationals, China is now a major short-term contributor to future profit growth
–Chinese companies continue to pursue overseas growth ambitions
With some uncertainties
–How rapidly China can move to a more consumption-driven economy
–How China’s stance on regulations and foreign ownership evolves in the context of similar uncertainties in the US and Europe
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