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英文文献：Linear Feedback Between European Wheat Export Refunds And World Wheat Prices-欧洲小麦出口退税和世界小麦价格之间的线性反馈
英文文献作者：Roeber, Ronald
英文文献摘要：
This paper explores the dynamic relationships between European Union (EU) wheat export restitution awards and price movements in the world wheat market from November 20, 1986 through April 24, 1998. This study pairs the results of weekly EU open market tenders and corresponding foreign wheat export prices in a series of bivariate non-structural. From these models a feedback measure is calculated which estimates the contribution of innovations in wheat prices to the variance in export tenders and vice versa. Feedback was decomposed into patterns - short-term and long-term - that approximate patterns of strategic behavior or political strategy. The study showed overall feedback and short-term innovations in wheat export prices and European restitution awards are relatively small. As the length of the feedback decomposition increases directional feedback diverges. The importance of export price changes to European restitution awards increases in long-run relationships. In contrast weekly EU restitution awards decrease in their importance to wheat export price changes as decomposition periods increase. The general pattern found in the study seem to indicate that world export prices contribute substantially to long-term variations in EU open market tender awards, while these awards appear to have negligible effects on long-term international wheat price determination. Short-run and long-run feedback results provide evidence in support of an international wheat market that is minimally influenced by the administration of EU export subsidies. The long-term conduct of European wheat export policy appears to have been influenced to some degree by the international wheat market.
摘要本文探讨了1986年11月20日至1998年4月24日期间，欧盟小麦出口赔偿与世界小麦市场价格变动之间的动态关系。本研究将每周欧盟公开市场招标结果与相应的国外小麦出口价格组合成一系列二元非结构性。从这些模型中计算出一个反馈措施，它估计小麦价格创新对出口投标方差的贡献，反之亦然。反馈被分解为模式——短期和长期——近似战略行为或政治策略的模式。研究显示，小麦出口价格和欧洲赔偿奖励方面的总体反馈和短期创新相对较小。随着反馈分解长度的增加，反馈方向会发生发散。在长期关系中，出口价格变化对欧洲赔偿的重要性有所增加。相比之下，欧盟每周的赔偿奖励对小麦出口价格变化的重要性随着分解时间的增加而降低。研究中发现的一般模式似乎表明，世界出口价格对欧盟公开市场招标的长期变化有重大影响，而这些招标对国际小麦价格的长期决定似乎没有什么影响。短期和长期的反馈结果为国际小麦市场受到欧盟出口补贴管理的最低影响提供了支持证据。欧洲小麦出口政策的长期行为似乎在某种程度上受到了国际小麦市场的影响。
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