中信CLSA - Commodity forecasts - What factors really drive prices

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Blue Books
Experts’ views for expert investors


Foreword
The commodity supercycle has evolved into the super downturn. Many prices
have more than halved from their 2011 peaks, but they remain well above
those seen 15 years ago. This extreme range has contributed to
unprecedented uncertainty around the long-term outlook for commodity
prices. Yet for investors, the crux of investment decisions in the mining
majors is to determine if current prices reflect sustainable levels, or if they
are higher (or indeed even lower).
While some may look to the tea leaves, we have gone straight to the source.
Our guest author, Neal Brewster, has 16 years’ experience working at the
heart of global major Rio Tinto. For five years he led the group’s economic
forecasting, and there are few people better positioned to explain what really
drives commodity prices.
Neal discusses historical commodity price trends and their drivers, theoretical
issues and models for the formation of commodity prices, understanding and
modelling demand trends, the determination of physical commodity supply,
and other factors and considerations that impact price outcomes.
It is clear that there is a strong cyclical component to prices, but over the
very long term, they have demonstrated extended periods of both declining
and rising trends. The sustainable level and how this changes depends upon a
particular set of supply-demand drivers in each market.
Neal argues that it’s not the rate of demand growth, but the relative
availability and cost of supply which tends to drive commodity prices over the
longer term. As such, this report explores in detail the various influences on
cost structures and availability of long-run supply, including the cost of inputs
and productivity drivers, resource trends, capital intensity and producer
behaviour. Marginal cost theory, incentive pricing and the evolution of costcurves
are all explained in detail.
While this report doesn’t forecast commodity prices, it gives investors an
understanding of what really drives them, and provides insight into future
short- and long-run price trends. This, coupled with greater appreciation of
the competitive positioning of different assets and their exposure to different
drivers, should enable better-informed investment decisions in the sector.
Commodity bull or bear, we hope you enjoy the report.

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