发帖
雷达卡
source from：wsj
Exports expanded in March for the first time in nine months, but economists say the increase in part reflects a seasonal upturn
By Mark Magnier
April 12, 2016 11:46 p.m. ET
BEIJING—Chinese exports expanded in March for the first time in nine months, mildly buoying an economy that is struggling to regain momentum.
Economists cautioned that the export boost, after months of decreases, in part reflects a seasonal upturn after the Lunar New Year holiday in February and isn’t likely to be sustained given tepid global demand. Exports last month also benefited from a weak year-earlier performance that made comparative results look stronger.
Exports rose 11.5% in March year-over-year in dollar terms, the General Administration of Customs reported Wednesday. This compared with February’s 25.4% decline and exceeded a median 8.5% increase forecast by 14 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Imports in March declined by a less-than-expected 7.6%, compared with February’s 13.8% drop. And China’s trade surplus narrowed last month to $29.86 billion from February’s $32.5 billion.
“Even with this rebound, first-quarter trade is still quite weak,” said Standard Chartered Bank Ltd. economist Shuang Ding. “We cannot be very definite about a turnaround.”
The March trade data comes at a time of global sluggishness. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2016 global growth outlook to 3.2%, from 3.4%. A day earlier, the World Bank cut its global forecast to 2.5% from 2.9% amid concerns over a U.S. interest rate increase and a broad-based economic slowdown in emerging economies.
Exporters, who once powered the Chinese economy, face growing headwinds as outbound shipments fell 2.8% in 2015 after growing 7.5% on average between 2012 and 2014. A Commerce Ministry survey last month cited currency fluctuations, weak global demand, financing problems and rising costs as major concerns. Salaries for factory workers in coastal provinces now average $600 a month, twice the level in some Southeast Asian nations, the agency said.
Guofeng Trading Co., a northeast China-based exporter of pine nuts, pumpkin seeds and other agricultural products, has turned to automation to survive in an environment of weak demand and higher costs. “I have seen many big companies in our industry go bankrupt because of the bad situation,” said Ma Qianjuan, a general manager at the company, whose products are exported to North America.
Guofeng once needed 100 workers to produce 5 tons of processed food a day but using more efficient machinery it now produces 10 tons with 30 people, though the strategy has its limits, she said.
“Even though the yuan is depreciating against the dollar, we still suffer a lot,” Ms. Ma said. “No matter how cheap your products are, people in the U.S. or other developed countries are not buying.”
China’s economic growth slowed to 6.9% in 2015, its weakest performance in a quarter-century. Despite some indication that government spending and easing credit are gaining traction in cushioning the economy, growth in the first quarter is expected to slow to 6.7% when results are announced Friday, according to a median forecast of 14 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Premier Li Keqiang told provincial governors in a meeting Monday that the economy still faces difficulties and needs to reduce excess industrial capacity and cut red tape to help stabilize growth despite some recent positive signs, according to state media.
Currency volatility has hurt exporters, though the yuan’s value has steadied in recent weeks after depreciating for much of last year and the start of 2016 on the back of record capital outflows.
A tightening of capital controls have in part stemmed the outflows, but moving money offshore is still a concern. Economists point to data discrepancies between China’s imports from Hong Kong and Hong Kong’s exports to China—which should in theory be roughly equivalent -- as a sign some companies have been inflating invoices to move capital out of the country.
Imports from Hong Kong soared 116% in March year on year, a sign that the trend is holding, economists said. after rising 89% during the combined January-February period. This comes as China’s overall imports have continued to decline.
--Grace Zhu and Pei Li contributed to this article
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
