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#3: China Base Metals Supercycle? You’ve Already Paid for One
Roll out of metals sector — If you believe in the recent rally in base metals,
note that history suggests that it is time to switch from metal names to the
market indices.
Wait your turn or is this Supercycle 2.0 driven by China alone? — The rally
should be ending, based on 03/04 and 05/06 experiences. To believe metal
stocks will continue to outperform, one needs to believe in a new super-cycle.
Global cycles were synchronized last time, now only China is the driving force.
Rallies peak at 25 weeks, on average, 31 for supercycles; we are in week 26.5
— The current run has lasted 26 weeks for Chalco and 27 weeks for Jiangxi
Copper. The outperformance periods on average lasted 31 weeks (from trough
to peak) for the 3 periods we examined, or 25 weeks excluding the ‘super’
period in 06/07.
Jiangxi Copper looks over-stretched vs. Chalco — Contrary to our fundamental
analysis, Jiangxi has run harder than Chalco compared with previous cycles.
Moreover, 2 of 3 previous cycles suggest that Chalco can continue to run up in
the short-term. Based on this analysis, one would have a relative preference for
Chalco.
Four weeks after a peak, stocks fall in absolute terms 23% — Jiangxi has a
history of stronger pullbacks, falling 31% on average with consistency over the
past 3 cycles. Chalco’s average pullback is –16%, ranging from –34% to –6%.
Top Buys — Posco and United Tractors.
Top Sells — Tata Steel, Sterlite Industries and CNBM.
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