请问中国的风险中性概率怎么求？

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如题。<div>谁能给出一个具体的可行的做法么？</div>

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关键词：中国

恕我目光短浅，什么叫中国的风险中性概率？能不能先解释下？

看到这个标题我吓了一跳～～～

Chinese Risk Neutral ???

应该是风险的市场价格吧，参数估计时可以求出来，然后可以知道风险中立变换

路过，不知对不对

概率是针对某一个事件而言的，即某个事件的发生概率是多少。

你这个问法的确有点......

I would say that there is No Such thing as Chinese risk neutral probability. Have you ever heard of British risk neutral one or Canadian one?

Risk neutral is just a concept comes from asset pricing based on arbitrate free law or principle (one price every where). They simply say, you can assume risk free rate as your return or/and funding rate for the purpose of calculating the asset price and you do not need to worry about what really a return would be. This is a solution to the practical return that no body knows.

These probabilities or concept are simple use to confirm this principle.

the probabilities themselves are less important; in numerical implementation case to help to calculate the prices. When you build binomial tree or trinomial tree, and you need return of asset or interest rate, then simply plug in the risk free interest rate. At this time you know if you need chinese interest rate or british rate. At this moment, you are calculating your  "中国的风险中性概率" if that is what you mean.

Hope this helps.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-12 2:38:17编辑过]

1# jmickey

[size=+0]风险中性测度

通过百度到了这里
这个问题我认为就是除状态概率这一因素外，基本证券价格的决定因素还有哪些？也就是问：基本证券价格公式中未来消费的边际效用与现在消费的边际效用之比值由什么决定？楼主所问隐含这一问题：这一比值与地域有关吗？

各位版主若对此有思考，望不吝指教

请大家帮助解答这一问题：
代表性经纪人的边际效用问题，问题具体见：http://www.pinggu.org/bbs/thread-740761-1-1.html