小川英治Eiji Ogawa论文之十七 Empirical Analysis of Optimum Currency Area

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东亚最优货币区的实证分析，Empirical Analysis of Optimum Currency Area in East Asia，by Eiji Ogawa and Kentaro Kawasaki. Abstract :In recent years, it has become more recognized in East Asia that monetary and financial cooperation is necessary for preventing and managing future currency crises. The governments of East Asian countries have come to take a positive stance for regional financial cooperation since they experienced the Asian currency crisis in 1997. The monetary authorities of ASEAN plus three (Japan, China, and Korea) established a network of swap agreements among them under the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI). They decided to develop the CMI at the ASEAN plus three Financial Ministers’ Meeting in Istanbul in May of 2005. Once a currency crisis happens, the CMI is expected to work as a “crisis management” method. However, it is not designed for any “crisis prevention” and does not have a deterrent effect. For possible financial and/or currency crises, countries should develop future regional monetary policy cooperation in the right direction for “crisis prevention.” Another remarkable development has occurred in the local bond markets in recent years after the “Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI)” was established by the ASEAN plus three Financial Ministers’ Meeting in 2002. The experience from the Asian crisis has suggested that we should reduce “double mismatching” in terms of currency and maturity on the balance sheets of local financial institutions. Promoting securitization in the local financial transactions, and especially, developing the local bond markets should contribute to mitigating the maturity mismatching in borrowing from foreign countries and to preventing a possible future financial crisis that is deteriorated by a currency crisis. Cross-boarder transactions across local bond markets will also contribute to improved efficiency and further developments in regional bond markets. While some countries have begun to deregulate their capital accounts transactions in terms of the long-term capital inflows, there still exist strict regulations against cross-boarder short-term financial transactions.

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关键词：Empirical currency Analysis Analysi Optimum Eiji Ogawa Kentaro Kawasaki

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