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英文文献：Acreage Effects Of Decoupled Programs At The Extensive Margin-在广泛边际上脱钩的计划的面积效应
英文文献作者：Goodwin, Barry K.,Mishra, Ashok K.
英文文献摘要：
This analysis utilizes farm-level data to evaluate the extent to which U.S. farm program benefits, particularly the Agricultural Market Transition Act (AMTA) and market loss assistance payments, bring about distortions in production for wheat and barley production in the Northern Great Plains. The issue is important in light of the upcoming WTO negotiations and debate over the distortionary effects of such decoupled ("green-box") payments. Our results suggest that a modest, though statistically significant effect on acreage may have been evoked by AMTA payments. In particular,if the over $45 billion allocated to AMTA payments and market loss assistance had been doubled, wheat acreage may have been 7% greater and barley acreage may have been 12.8% higher. Models of land idling suggest that AMTA payments have a very modest effect on land idling in this region. We note that the nature of our data may result in an upward bias in AMTA and MLA payment effects, such that our analysis provides conservative estimates.
该分析利用农业层面的数据来评估美国农业项目的受益程度，特别是农业市场转型法案(AMTA)和市场损失援助款项对北部大平原小麦和大麦生产造成的扭曲。鉴于即将举行的WTO谈判和有关这种脱钩(“绿箱”)支付扭曲效应的辩论，这个问题很重要。我们的结果表明，AMTA支付可能对土地面积产生了适度但在统计上显著的影响。特别是，如果分配给AMTA支付和市场损失援助的450多亿美元能够翻一番，小麦的种植面积可能会增加7%，大麦的种植面积可能会增加12.8%。闲置土地的模型表明，AMTA支付对该地区闲置土地的影响非常有限。我们注意到，我们的数据的性质可能导致AMTA和MLA支付效应的向上偏差，因此我们的分析提供了保守的估计。
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