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英文文献：Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility-衡量商品价格波动和消除波动的福利后果
英文文献作者：Moledina, Amyaz A.,Roe, Terry L.,Shane, Mathew
英文文献摘要：
Commodity price volatility in international markets has been used to justify numerous policy interventions, including the need for buffer stocks and counter-cyclical payments. The common measure of volatility, the standard deviation or coefficient of variation, likely overstates the actual variation faced by economic agents. By making a distinction between its predictable and unpredictable components, volatility is found to be low, suggesting that significant welfare gains may be unattainable with policy interventions designed to stabilize prices. The use of the standard deviation implies price volatility as high as 30 per cent for certain grain markets. Removing the predictable components from this measure decreases volatility to between 0.1 per cent and 15.9%. We find little evidence to suggest that volatility is increasing over time for all commodities. The benefits of eliminating low levels of commodity price volatility are small, less than 1% of consumption for the majority of commodities studied.
国际市场上的大宗商品价格波动一直被用作许多政策干预的理由，包括需要缓冲库存和反周期支付。波动率的常用度量，标准差或变异系数，很可能夸大了经济主体面临的实际变异。通过区分其可预测和不可预测的组成部分，发现波动性较低，这表明旨在稳定物价的政策干预可能无法实现显著的福利收益。使用标准差意味着，某些粮食市场的价格波动性高达30%。从这个度量中去掉可预测的组件将波动性降低到0.1%到15.9%之间。我们发现，几乎没有证据表明，所有大宗商品的波动性都在随时间增加。消除低水平的大宗商品价格波动的好处很小，对大多数被研究的大宗商品而言，它只占消费的不到1%。
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