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The Treatment-Effect Estimation:A Case Study of The 2008 Economic Stimulus Package of China
欧阳敏 彭玉磊
清华大学经济管理学院
In 2008, the Chinese government put forth an economic stimulus package of 586 billion USD to minimize the impact of the global financial crisis. This is considered as one of the most important macroeconomic policy interventions in the past decade. This paper employs this policy intervention as a case study to address the challenge of evaluating the treatment effects under time-varying latent factors. In particular, we return to the framework of Hsiao, Ching, and Wan (2012), relax their linear conditional mean assumption, and extend it to a semi-parametric setting. The asymptotic distribution properties of the average treatment effect estimator is derived and studied. Both the linear model and the semi-parametric model are applied to study the treatment effect of the 2008 stimulus package on China’s macroeconomy. The estimation results show the stimulus package had raised the annual real GDP growth in China by about 3.2%, but only temporarily. These results are robust to linear setting, semiparametric setting, and various control group selections. The temporary boost in macroeconomic outcome is also evident in the estimation of other economic indicators such as real investment, real consumption, real export, and real import.
ps：这个研究计算出这个刺激政策导致了GDP上升3.2%，但只是暂时的！
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