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雷达卡
Darrell P. Rowbottom
When a doctor tells you there s a one percent chance that an operation will result in your death, or a scientist claims that his theory is probably true, what exactly does that mean? Understanding probability is clearly very important, if we are to make good theoretical and practical choices.
In this engaging and highly accessible introduction to the philosophy of probability, Darrell Rowbottom takes the reader on a journey through all the major interpretations of probability, with reference to real-world situations. In lucid prose, he explores the many fallacies of probabilistic reasoning, such as the gambler s fallacy and the inverse fallacy , and shows how we can avoid falling into these traps by using the interpretations presented. He also illustrates the relevance of the interpretation of probability across disciplinary boundaries, by examining which interpretations of probability are appropriate in diverse areas such as quantum mechanics, game theory, and genetics.
Using entertaining dialogues to draw out the key issues at stake, this unique book will appeal to students and scholars across philosophy, the social sciences, and the natural sciences.
Table of Contents
Preface
Chapter 1: Probability: A Two Faced Guide to Life?
Chapter 2: The Classical Interpretation
Chapter 3: The Logical Interpretation
Chapter 4: The Subjective Interpretation
Chapter 5: The Objective Bayesian Interpretation
Chapter 6: Group Level Interpretations
Chapter 7: The Frequency Interpretation
Chapter 8: The Propensity Interpretation
Chapter 9: Fallacies, Puzzles, and a Paradox
Chapter 10: Interpreting Probability in the Humanities, Natural Sciences and Social Sciences
Appendix
A. The Axioms and Laws of Probability
B. Bayes s Theorem
References
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