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英文文献：Spatial Targeting Strategies For Land Conservation-土地保护的空间定位策略
英文文献作者：Newburn, David A.,Berck, Peter,Merenlender, Adina
英文文献摘要：
Purchasing development rights is a major mechanism for the protection of environmental quality and landscape amenities. This paper provides a targeting strategy for protecting multiple environmental benefits that takes into account land costs and probability of land use conversion. We compare two strategies. Subject to a budget constraint on parcel purchases, the standard strategy is to target parcels with the highest ratio of environmental benefits to land costs. The standard strategy selects parcels even if there is little probability that the parcel would otherwise be converted. Our new strategy targets parcels to minimize the benefit loss from land conversion, which weights parcel based on initial benefit endowment and expected probability of land use conversion. The empirical analysis focuses on targeting conservation easements in the exurban region of Sonoma County, CA, in which extensively-managed, developable parcels (i.e. pasture and forest areas) with environmental benefits are being converted to residential use and vineyards. Spatially-explicit modeling approaches are employed to estimate land values and likelihood of land use conversion, according to heterogeneous parcel site characteristics, for all developable parcels. Our results indicate that benefit-cost targeting is biased toward low cost parcels, since it ignores the variation in likelihood of future land use conversion. This inefficiency for benefit-cost targeting arises from the positive relationship that typically exists between likelihood of land use change and value of development rights. Hence, some parcels with poor land quality or remote accessibility to urban centers would have de facto conservation, and therefore do not warrant targeting of conservation funds, despite the low cost of protection. Our new targeting strategy balances the countervailing factors of land values and likelihood of land use conversion.
购买发展权是保护环境质量和景观设施的主要机制。本文提供了一个目标策略，以保护多种环境利益，其中考虑到土地成本和土地用途转换的可能性。我们比较两种策略。受采购包裹的预算限制，标准的策略是以环境效益与土地成本比率最高的包裹为目标。标准策略选择包裹，即使包裹不太可能被转换。我们的新策略以地块为目标，最大限度地减少土地转换带来的收益损失，并根据初始收益禀赋和土地利用转换的预期概率对地块进行加权。该实证分析的重点是针对加州索诺玛县远郊地区的保护地役权，在该地区，具有环境效益的广泛管理的、可开发的地块(即牧场和森林地区)正被转换为住宅用途和葡萄园。针对所有可开发地块，空间显式建模方法根据地块地块的不同特征，用于估计土地价值和土地用途转换的可能性。我们的结果表明，收益-成本目标偏向于低成本的地块，因为它忽略了未来土地利用转换可能性的变化。这种低效率的利益-成本目标产生于土地使用变化的可能性和开发权的价值之间通常存在的积极关系。因此，一些土地质量较差或距离城市中心较远的地块实际上会得到保护，因此，尽管保护成本较低，但不值得将保护基金作为目标。我们新的目标策略平衡了土地价值和土地用途转换的可能性之间的相互抵消因素。
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