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英文文献：Demand Determinants For U.S. Processed Food Exports By Emerging/Low And Middle-Income Countries-新兴/中低收入国家对美国加工食品出口的需求决定因素
英文文献作者：Marchant, Mary A.,Kumar, Sanjeev
英文文献摘要：
Since processed foods are the fastest growing segment of U.S. agricultural exports, it is imperative to understand the underlying factors behind this growth. The overall objective of this research is to examine demand for processed foods by low and middle-income countries, seeking to assess demand determinants and potential import growth. In order to achieve this objective, we estimated a "modified gravity model" for U.S. exports of processed foods to 10 low and middle-income countries from 1980-2002, using both classical linear regression and fixed effects approaches. Empirical results from the classical model indicate that, as hypothesized, population, income, level of urbanization and an open trade regime have a positive effect on demand for processed foods by low and middle-income countries. As expected, exchange rates and distance have an inverse relationship with imports. Empirical results from the fixed-effects model are similar, with the exception of population. A cross-country comparative analysis of leading potential markets for U.S. processed food exports over the years 2003-2012 concluded that Mexico, China and Brazil, in that order, are likely to be the three largest future markets for U.S. processed foods among these 10 emerging countries.
由于加工食品是美国农产品出口增长最快的部分，了解这种增长背后的潜在因素是当务之急。本研究的总体目标是考察中低收入国家对加工食品的需求，寻求评估需求决定因素和潜在进口增长。为了实现这一目标，我们利用经典线性回归和固定效应方法，估算了1980年至2002年美国向10个中低收入国家出口加工食品的“修正重力模型”。经典模型的实证结果表明，正如假设的那样，人口、收入、城市化水平和开放的贸易制度对中低收入国家加工食品的需求有积极的影响。正如预期的那样，汇率和距离与进口呈反比关系。固定效应模型的经验结果是相似的，除了人口。一项对2003-2012年美国加工食品出口的主要潜在市场的跨国比较分析得出结论，按顺序排列，墨西哥、中国和巴西很可能是这10个新兴国家中未来美国加工食品的三个最大市场。
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