The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy

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Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy
By Kamran Dadkhah

Publisher:  Springer
Number Of Pages:  269
Publication Date:  2009-08-03
ISBN-10 / ASIN:  3540770070
ISBN-13 / EAN:  9783540770077

Product Description:

The Great Depression of the 1930s gave birth to a branch of economics that in 1933 Ragnar Frisch christened macroeconomics. Over the decades that followed up to the present, the interactions of economic events, economic policy, and macroeconomic theory have created a fascinating story integral to the life and politics of national economies around the world. This book recounts that story. It brings together three strands of activities and trends: the economic events of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries that defined the economic problems facing the nation, policymakers, and economists; the responses of economists who brought the accumulated knowledge of the profession to bear on these problems; and the successes and failures of these policies as they reshaped the economic landscape and defined new sets of problems to be analyzed by macroeconomic theory. This highly readable book presents an unconventional perspective on macroeconomics – the interplay of theory and policy in a historical context.
Contents
1 The Great Depression and Mr. Keynes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Crash of 1929 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
TheGreatDepression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Depression Around the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
FDRand theNewDeal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
“WeMustAct andActQuickly” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TheNewDealPolicies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Irving Fisher’s Theory of Debt-Deflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Money and theGreatDepression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
The Keynesian Vision of the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
John Hicks and the IS-LM Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Keynes and FDR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
The Fundamental Question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Paternalistic Economic Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2 The Post-War Economic Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
TheG.I.Bill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
The Employment Act of 1946 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
The Council of Economic Advisers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
TheBirthof theWelfareState . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
The Bretton Woods Agreement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
The Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) . . . 39
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
TheMarshallPlan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
ThePointFour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
TheBraveNewPostWarWorld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
3 Laying the Foundations of Keynesian Economics . . . . . . . . . . 45
Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
National Income Accounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
The Rise of Econometrics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Simultaneity and Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Errors inVariables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
ix
x Contents
Adaptive Expectations Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Partial Adjustment Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Discounting and Present Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
The Consumption Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Permanent Income Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Cross Section Estimate of Propensity to Consume . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Life Cycle Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
The Investment Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Tobin’s q . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Demand forMoney . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
The Growth Model of Harrod and Domar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Solow’s Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Solow Residual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
The Golden Age of Macroeconomics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
4 Keynesian Economics in Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Okun’s Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
The Phillips Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Stagflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
TheNaturalRate ofUnemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Rational Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
The Augmented Phillips Curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Income Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
5 Macroeconomics of an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Equilibrium in an Open Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Fixed Exchange Rates with Capital and Foreign
Exchange Controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Monetary and Fiscal Policies Under Capital Mobility . . . . . . . . . 110
Monetary Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Fiscal Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . 114
Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
The Preeminence of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century . . . . . . . 116
6 The Collapse of Post-War International Economic Order . . . . . . 117
A New Economic Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
TheAftermath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
The End of Bretton Woods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Milton Friedman and Flexible Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
The Oil Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
The Sources of Oil Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
7 The New Classical Revolt Against Activist Economic Policy . . . . 131
Microfoundations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Coordination Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Empirical Validity of the Keynesian Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
The Identification Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
The New Classical Criticism of Keynesian Policies . . . . . . . . . . 136
Policy Ineffectiveness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
The Lucas Critique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
TimeSeriesAnalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Stationary Series and ARIMA Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Wold’s Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Spurious Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Causality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
VARModeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Deterministic vs. Stochastic Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Cointegration andErrorCorrection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

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关键词：MacroEcon Evolution Economic macroeco Policy Theory Policy Evolution 出炉

8 Business Cycles: Evidence, Theory, and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Forecasting Recessions and Recovery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Frisch’s Theory of Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
Samuelson’s Model of Interaction Between Multiplier and Acceleration 159
Hicks’s Model of Two Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
A Critique of Keynesian Models of Business Cycles . . . . . . . . . . 162
Real Business Cycles Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
A Simple Model of Real Business Cycles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
A Bayesian Interpretation of Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
New Keynesian Models with Nominal and Real Rigidities . . . . . . . 169
Convergence in Macroeconomics: DSGE Models with New
Keynesian Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
Business Cycles and Economic Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Economic Model as a Means of Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
An Anti Empirical Trait Among Economists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
9 Money, Monetary Policy, and Monetarism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
The Quantity Theory of Money . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
The Money Supply Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
The Federal Funds Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
OpenMarketOperation andFOMC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
Targeting Money Supply vs. the Federal Funds Rate . . . . . . . . . . 189
Central Bank’s Credibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
Central Bank’s Independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
InflationTargeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
Monetarism Program for Monetary Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Rules vs.Discretion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Time Inconsistency of Optimal Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
TheTermStructure of InterestRates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
The Market Segmentation Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
xii Contents
The Expectations Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
Liquidity Preference Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
10 Government Budget and Fiscal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
An Overview of Revenues and Expenditures
of theUSGovernment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Government Budget Constraint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
The Ricardian Equivalence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
TheCrowdingOutEffect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Taxes and Incentives to Work and Save . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Flat Tax and Negative Income Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
ConsumptionTax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Political Economy of Budgets and Reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
The Illusion of Populist Economic Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
11 The Reagan-Thatcher Revolution: The Age of Hayek and
Schumpeter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
Hayek’s Vision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214
Schumpeter’s Theory of Business Cycles and Growth . . . . . . . . . 215
Supply Side Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 216
TheLafferCurve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
A Change of Emphasis from Stabilization to Growth . . . . . . . . . . 220
TheRamseyProblem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
The Overlapping Generations Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Endogenous Growth Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
In Search of the Elements of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
TheReaganYears . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
The Great Moderation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
12 Macroeconomics of Globalized Economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
WorldTradeOrganization (WTO) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234
TheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement (NAFTA) . . . . . . . . . 235
The European Union . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
Other Aspects of Globalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
The International Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236
SovereignDebt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Sovereign Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
International Economic Policy Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
13 The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2007–2009 . . . . . . . . . . 241
Enough Blame to Go Around . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
TheAmericanDreamofHomeownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
Subprime Mortgage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
TheHousingCrisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244
The Function of Finance and Financial Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . 245
Assets,Risk, andDiversification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
Long, Short, and Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
Hedging, Arbitrage, and Speculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
Financial Innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
Asset-Backed Securities, Collateralized Debt Obligations
(CDOs), andCreditDefaultSwaps (CDSs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Fraud in Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252
The Financial Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
TheStockMarket . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
The Effects on the Real Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
Government Response to the Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255
Back totheFuture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 265

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