Demographic_Forecasting

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Demographic Forecasting by Gary King

1 Qualitative Overview
I Existing Methods for Forecasting Mortality
2 Methods Using No Covariates
3 Methods Using Covariates 51

II Statistical Modeling
4 The Model
5 Priors Over Grouped Continuous Variables
6 Model Selection
7 Adding Priors Over Time and Space
8 Comparisons and Extensions
III Estimation
9 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation
10 Fast Estimation Without Markov Chains

IV Empirical Evidence
11 Examples
12 Concluding Remarks

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关键词：Demographic Forecasting Forecast GRAPHIC Casting Forecasting Demographic