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Attribution substitution risk and multiples
The primary objective of this note is to provide a framework to analyse and understand multiples. We often find multiples to be inconsistently or erroneously calculated. We believe this stems from the fact that, when faced with a computationally difficult judgement (valuation), individuals seek to simplify the process by taking a perceived easier route (multiples). This phenomenon is known as attribution substitution. Whilst we believe valuation should not be made unnecessarily complicated, investors need to be careful not to try to oversimplify the matter, and in doing so calculating incorrect multiples and derived valuation.
We need to talk about multiples…
Multiples can be a useful valuation tool, capable of capturing market sentiment. They have the advantage of being easy to execute without relying on extensive information and assumptions. They appeal to time pressured investors who are constantly making investment decisions relative to a portfolio, a sector or an index. Multiples have the capacity to capture the complexities of valuation in a single number.
…within a robust analytical framework
However, the question is, how do we explain this single number? Multiples are most useful when compared to peers and across time, but why does one company trade on 12x and another on 16x EBITDA? This is where analysis can stall. This primer will
consider how the fundamental drivers of multiples of cash, risk and value added growth can be built into an analytical framework to address why different companies trade on different multiple values.
Interactive target multiple model
We have built a two-stage interactive target multiple tool that allows investors to model target multiples based on fundamental multiple drivers. The model allows target multiples to be compared to current market multiples to assess potential under / over valuation, and to flex different assumptions for sensitivity analysis.
20170316-UBS-Fundamental Equity Analytics：How to...Analyse and Talk the Languag.pdf
(1.79 MB, 需要: 8 个论坛币)
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