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■ How about 2017E consensus EPS upgrades? With MSCI Asia ex-Japan Financials up 11% YTD and being the fifth best performing sector, a key question from investors is whether there are still any catalysts for being Overweight banks particularly as bond yields are now falling. We highlight the fourth consecutive upgrade to 2017E consensus EPS in March of 0.3%. The 0.3% upgrade in March follows upgrades of 0.7% in February and 0.1% each in January and December (see Figure 3). Banks in MSCI China, Korea, Indonesia, MSCI Hong Kong and Australia are associated with upgrades in March of 1.3%, 1.1%, 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. See Figures 4, 7-10.
■ Valuations still support our Overweight stance. While the PB of MSCI Asia ex-Japan Banks has risen from a low of 0.86x in February 2016 (note 1998 lows was 0.87x) to 1.07x, the sector still has the lowest PB of all sectors – lower than Materials on 1.29x, Industrials on 1.26x and Energy on 1.18x. If we exclude the Chinese Banks, PB is still a low of 1.25x.
■ Reiterate our Overweight stance on Banks. While Korean banks have the lowest PB of 0.59x, MSCI China banks trade on the biggest discount of 92% on our PBV vs. ROE valuation model, and Taiwan Banks have the biggest gap between dividend yields and the country’s bond yields of 3.1%. Top Financials’ picks from the CS regional portfolio include KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, Bank of China, Ping An Insurance, Cathay, Fubon, ANZ, CBA, DBS, Sumitomo Mitsui and Daichi-Life.
20170405-Credit Suisse-Asia Pacific Equity Strategy：With Bond Yields Fallin, An.pdf
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