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• Broadening global growth and signs that the reflation theme is gaining traction create a brighter outlook for risky assets in 2017. Although the U.S. is hiking rates, aggregate global policy remains accommodative and is likely to prevent a sharp spike in bond yields, in turn reducing the risk of a damaging appreciation of the U.S. dollar.
• Stocks in general should perform well, and we favor diversifying exposure across regions. Japan, U.S. and emerging market (EM) equities are set to lead in the first half of 2017; and as event risk in Europe clears, eurozone stocks have scope to play catchup. Credit is now expensive and unlikely to outperform stocks, but should still beat government bonds.
• Better growth and a higher fed funds rate can push U.S. 10-year yields steadily toward 3% this year. This is hardening our conviction in being modestly underweight duration as the economy moves gradually toward later cycle over the course of the year.
2017 Q2-JPM AM-Global Asset Allocation Views.pdf
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