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雷达卡
The macro environment remains supportive of assets geared to growth. Developed markets are leading a synchronized global expansion and financial conditions are easy, with strong equities and accessible credit. That said, we think markets might be complacent and we see inconsistencies that may find equilibrium in the coming months. US sentiment is running ahead of hard data, and rates are too low and financial conditions too loose for the projected policy tightening. We haven’t seen much risk premium to reflect a tapering of quantitative easing (QE), political strains in Europe, or risks in China’s financial sector. While we don’t expect upheaval, we note that the credit cycle is mature, central bank policy is in flux and geopolitical risks are elevated. In a world of stretched valuations, we are currently focused on opportunities in undervalued emerging market currencies.
The global growth upswing has been synchronized and strong.
We see less symmetry in the global inflation outlook, due in part to dispersion in output gaps.
The QE unwind is the next challenge for fixed income markets.
Political risk has increased, centered in Europe.
We favor undervalued emerging market currencies.
20172Q-Goldman Sachs AM-Global Fixed Income Outlook：Seeking Equilibrium.pdf
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