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英文文献：A Cost Approach to Economic Analysis under Production Uncertainty-生产不确定性下经济分析的成本方法
英文文献作者：Chavas, Jean-Paul
英文文献摘要：
This paper explores the economics of input decision by a firm facing production uncertainty. It relies on a state-contingent approach to production uncertainty. First, the paper develops a methodology to specify and estimate cost-minimizing input decisions under a state-contingent technology. Second, the analysis is applied to time series data on US agriculture. It finds strong empirical evidence that, in the analysis of input choices, expected output alone does not provide an appropriate representation of production uncertainty. The results provide empirical support for an output-cubical technology. This indicates that an ex post analysis of stochastic technology (as commonly found in previous research) appears appropriate. The analysis also provides evidence that the cost of facing adverse weather conditions has declined in US agriculture over the last few decades.
本文探讨了企业面临生产不确定性时投入决策的经济学问题。它依赖于一种以国家为条件的方法来处理生产的不确定性。首先，本文开发了一种方法来指定和估计在状态或有条件的技术下成本最小化的投入决策。其次，该分析应用于美国农业的时间序列数据。它发现了强有力的经验证据，在输入选择的分析中，期望产出单独不能提供生产不确定性的适当表示。研究结果为生产容积法技术提供了经验依据。这表明对随机技术的事后分析(通常在以前的研究中发现)似乎是合适的。该分析还提供了证据，表明在过去几十年里，美国农业在应对恶劣天气条件方面的成本已经下降。
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