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source from：FT Confidential Research
https://www.ft.com/content/4f07064e-421b-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
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Chinese home sales fall again as mortgage lending tightens Premium
FTCR China Real Estate Index below 50 as market cools in first-tier cities
YESTERDAY by: FT Confidential Research
The FTCR China Real Estate Index fell below 50 in May for the first time in four months as developers reported that tighter mortgage availability hit sales. The headline index fell 1.2 points month-on-month and was well below the average of 53.1 over the previous 12 months. The government’s ongoing campaign to rein in housing market speculation is reflected in our latest data, which showed a sharp contraction in activity in May, particularly in the country’s biggest markets. Credit availability shrank, with the proportion of developers saying first-time buyers were able to access discounted mortgages falling for a fourth month to its lowest level in nearly two years.
House prices in first-tier cities rose at their slowest pace so far in this cycle. Despite this weakness, developers remained net positive about the outlook for both prices and sales. However, local governments are continuing to tighten administrative policies and the central government is cracking down on lending, which means this optimism may be misplaced.
- Developers reported that home sales fell for a second straight month in May.
- Our Home Sales Index rose 0.4 points month-on-month but remained below the 50 mark separating increasing from decreasing sales activity, at 46.6. In May 2016, the index stood at 53.
- First-time buyers were again the biggest source of demand (46.6 per cent), while those looking to buy an additional home accounted for 16.7 per cent of respondents, up from 11.8 per cent in April.
- Developers reported that the volume of sales inquiries rose at the slowest pace since January, with our index dropping to 51.6 from 55.6.
- Our survey found an outright decline in first and third-tier cities, but the sub-index for second-tier cities remained positive at 56.5, suggesting inquiries continued to grow in these markets, if at a slower pace than in April.
- House prices continued to rise in May, but at a slightly slower pace.
- The FTCR China Home Price Index fell to 62 from 63.9 in April. 58 per cent of developers said they offered a discount to the list price, unchanged month-on-month.
- The number of developers offering discounts has trended downwards from a record high of 82.7 per cent in July 2015 as the market has recovered.
- Supply of new houses to the market fell for the first month since February.
- Our New Home Supply Index fell 1.8 points month-on-month to 49.
- The share of developers reporting sales volume increases continued to outstrip that reporting supply growth, although not by a great margin: 23.6 per cent said transactions rose while just 21.6 per cent said supply did.
- Despite signs of a cooling market, developers maintained a positive outlook for sales volumes for a fourth straight month and they also expect prices to continue rising, although both to a reduced degree.
- Our Home Sales Outlook Index fell 2.3 points to 52.1, while our Home Price Outlook Index slipped 4.2 points to 58.6.
- Developers reported that access to discounted mortgages for first-time buyers tightened sharply in May: just 28.1 per cent said this group could access loans below the benchmark interest rate, down from 41.1 per cent in April.
- Mortgage discount availability shrank across all city tiers in May, with buyers in second-tier cities hardest hit.
- Just 20.2 per cent of these buyers were able to take advantage of discounted mortgage rates, the smallest proportion since June 2015. Mortgage discount availability also shrank for second-home buyers, with 6.9 per cent of developers reporting such discounts, down from 9.9 per cent in April.
- Sales volumes ticked up in second-tier cities in May but fell again in first and third-tier markets. Our Home Sales Index for first-tier cities fell to 38.9 from 41.1, having plunged 25.9 points in April, but the sub-index for second-tier cities rose to 50 from 48.5.
- House price inflation held up in second and third-tier cities but fell sharply in China’s biggest housing markets, our price sub-indices suggest. The first-tier city price sub-index fell 7.8 points month-on-month to 51.1, the lowest reading since the peak of the last cycle in July 2014.
- The FTCR China Real Estate survey is based on interviews with 300 developers in 40 cities. For further details click here. This report contains the headline figures from the latest Real Estate survey; the full results are available from our Database.
FT Confidential Research is an independent research service from the Financial Times, providing in-depth analysis of and statistical insight into China and Southeast Asia. Our team of researchers in these key markets combine findings from our proprietary surveys with on-the-ground research to provide predictive analysis for investors.
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