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US exit from climate agreement increases policy uncertainty
President Trump announced yesterday that the US will withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement. Key US climate policies (such as various tax credits and emission standards) are not affected by this decision. Other key signatories (including China, the EU and India) have indicated that they remain committed to their climate targets.
But is unlikely to shift dynamics of the low carbon transition
With innovation and markets, rather than solely politics, increasingly driving the use of low carbon technologies, we believe the impact of the US decision on the low carbon economy should not be overstated (see GS SUSTAIN: The Low Carbon Economy: Technology in the Driver’s Seat; Nov 28, 2016). Rather, we see an increase in regulatory uncertainty in carbonintensive sectors such as autos, utilities and energy as the main implication of the withdrawal, as companies and investors try to anticipate further decisions by the Administrations on key climate policies such as the CAFE standards.
Market share gains for key technologies likely to continue
We maintain our view that technologies such as LEDs, EVs, and wind & solar are likely to continue to see rapid market share gains on the back of further cost reductions and performance improvements. Electric vehicles are a case in point, with 2016 marking a fourth year of 50%+ volume growth and a series of announcements for new, long-range fully electric offerings from major carmakers. As they seek to prepare for a potential disruptive shift to electric vehicle technology across key global markets, we think companies are unlikely to scale back their EV investment in response to regulatory changes in individual countries.
20161128-Goldman Sachs-The Low Carbon Economy：Technology in the Driver's Seat.pdf
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20170602-Goldman Sachs-The Low Carbon Economy：US Withdraws from Paris; Technolo.pdf
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