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英文文献：Economic Impacts of the Conservation Reserve Program: A General Equilibrium Framework-自然保护区计划的经济影响:一个一般均衡框架
英文文献作者：Taheripour, Farzad
英文文献摘要：
This article uses a general equilibrium framework and econometric analyses to examine economic wide impacts of the Conservation Reserves Program. It determines direct and indirect factors which affect the economic efficiency of the program and shows their magnitudes. It shows that the interaction between the program and the tax system causes indirect efficiency costs but the interaction between the program and the agricultural support subsidies generate economic gains. The program has the potential to distort the labor market and cause efficiency losses form this channel. However the analytical model shows that trade can reduce social costs of the policy because a part of the burden of the policy can be passed on to foreign consumers of crop products through the world market. The numerical results show that at the current level of acreage reduction (34 millions acres), the marginal cost of spending one more dollar on the program is about $1.9 for the US economy. In addition, the numerical results illustrate that the program has the potential to generate different and significant unintended economic impacts. For example, depending on the parameters of the model, the program can raise the prices of land up to 10.6%, generate up to 20% land conversion, and raise the demand for nitrogen fertilizer up to 4.2% at the current level of acreage reduction. Finally, the empirical regression results demonstrate that the program has affected the production behavior of the crop industry significantly. In particular, the program has increased the demand for fertilizer and labor and has decreased the demand for land and capital.
本文使用一般均衡框架和计量经济学分析来检验保护区计划的广泛经济影响。它决定了影响项目经济效益的直接和间接因素，并显示了它们的大小。结果表明，计划与税收制度之间的相互作用导致了间接的效率成本，但计划与农业支持补贴之间的相互作用产生了经济收益。这一计划有可能扭曲劳动力市场，并导致这一渠道的效率损失。然而，分析模型显示，贸易可以降低政策的社会成本，因为政策负担的一部分可以通过世界市场转嫁给外国作物产品消费者。数值结果显示，以目前的面积减少水平(3400万英亩)，在该项目上多花一美元，对美国经济的边际成本约为1.9美元。此外，数值结果表明，该方案有可能产生不同和重大的非预期经济影响。例如，根据模型的参数，在目前减少面积的情况下，该方案可将土地价格提高到10.6%，实现20%的土地转化率，并将氮肥需求提高到4.2%。最后，实证回归结果表明，该计划对种植业的生产行为产生了显著影响。特别是，该计划增加了对化肥和劳动力的需求，减少了对土地和资本的需求。
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