发帖
雷达卡
ChiNext's Q2 earnings may decline YoY; noticeable declines at leaders/TMT
All ChiNext firms have now pre-announced their earnings for H1. Based on the lowest and highest figures, we estimate ChiNext firms' (ex. Wen's) Q2 earnings growth ranged from -23% YoY to +5% YoY. On a like-for-like basis, ChiNext firms (ex. Wen's) posted Q1 earnings growth of 26.2%, which shows YoY earnings growth slowed noticeably in Q2. Earnings growth declines among the top 20 firms by market cap were more visible, at 9-33% YoY, while we estimate the rest posted earnings growth ranging from -23% to 9%. Computers and media, the top two weighted sectors, with a combined 21% of the ChiNext board's overall market cap, posted Q2 earnings declines of 90%/60% YoY (based on the average of the lowest and highest net profit), the main reason for the poor overall performance of the board.
Cyclicals: Futures and stock investors have different expectations
Commodity futures, led by rebar, started to pull back, with a brief correction based on investor worries about overly-uniform market views, namely limited supply due to environmental protection measures, sustained strong demand into Q3 and emergence of restocking in July. However, share prices on the stock market did not fully reflect the annualised performance of futures and spot prices. While the short-term pullback of futures prices will lead to a stock price drop, we think there will be limited downside for share prices in the medium term, since stock investors are already more pessimistic. Coal prices have the strongest support from demand due to seasonal factors but may face a greater risk of falling after August. Late-cycle commodities with marketdetermined prices, such as nonferrous metals and chemicals, may have longer-lasting opportunities to perform.
20170724-UBS-China A-Share Strategy Weekly：Why Is ChiNext Testing New Lows？.pdf
(257.23 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
