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Weighting of SME held steady QoQ but that of ChiNext continued to fall
The weighting of the SME Board in mutual funds' holdings held steady QoQ, based on their Q2 results, but the weighting of the ChiNext Board continued to fall. Both the absolute weighting and overweight ratios of the ChiNext Board declined 1.7/1.3ppt QoQ to 12.3%/5.1%. Mutual funds continued to raise their positions in the Main Board, which we believe was mainly due to their low market risk appetite, with largecap stocks continuing to significantly outperform small-cap stocks as ChiNext earnings declined sharply. Moreover, mutual funds may now pare their positions in ChiNext stocks, having been substantially overweight them for a sustained period of time.
Insurers/white goods/drinks top gainers; constr. & decor., software top losers
In Q2, mutual funds continued to prefer quality consumer stocks. Their interest in the insurance sector, which benefits from a rising risk-free rate, improved significantly, and they doubled their position in insurance stocks. The sectors with the largest weighting increases were insurance, white goods and beverages (mainly baijiu), up 3.2/1.8/1.2ppt, followed by electronics, hardware and power. The sectors with the most significant weighting decreases were construction & decoration and software, down 1.0/0.6ppt. Other sectors with weighting decreases were TCM, special equipment and securities.
White goods/drinks among most o/wtd; banks/securities still most u/wtd
In terms of mutual fund weightings by sector compared to CSI300, white goods/beverages (mainly baijiu) were among the most over-weighted, with overweight ratios of 2.4% (2nd)/1.9% (3rd). Electronics/chemical & pharmaceutical continued from Q1 to be among the most over-weighted, with overweight ratios of 5.7% (1st)/1.5% (4th), +0.7%/-0.5% QoQ. Banks/securities remained the most under-weighted sectors.
Weighting of bank stocks still has significant upside potential
We focus on the change in weightings of white goods/beverages (baijiu)/ electronics/ insurance in mutual funds' holdings, which attracted the most attention. Mutual funds still preferred white goods/beverages (baijiu) due to strong fundamentals/investment style. The weighting of white goods hit a new high, while beverages (baijiu) were still a long way from the record high. Due to the global electronics value chain's recovery, the overweight ratio of electronics hit a new high of 5.7%, but computers, another TMT sector, continued to fall. Financials saw weightings change: insurance rose a sharp 3.2%, but banks, another heavily-weighted financial sector, fell slightly. We see significant upside potential for banks. We prefer large banks with adequate capital/low balance sheet risk, which may benefit from a better NPL formation ratio.
20170725-UBS-China A-Share Strategy：Weightings of White Goods and Electronics H.pdf
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