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麦格理中国A股策略，2017年上半年A股明显弱于港股，估计A股在下半年也不会有太大的起色，推荐基本面较好的金融类和消费类股票，英文10页：
A-share market underperforms HK market in 1H
The A-share market rose a modest 4.5% in 1H17, significantly underperforming HK market’s 23% rise, driven by better than expected macro data but constrained by tightened liquidity and stricter regulations. Share performance visibly diverged between big caps and small caps. The SSE50 has gained 14% and the CSI300 has gained 6.5% in the last 6 months while the GEM board has recorded an 11% loss, reflecting a fairly low risk appetite.
Market likely to continue sideways in 2H17
We expect the Shanghai Composite to trade in a narrow band of 3200 to 3400 whilst the sector performance divergence should persist. Out of the three most important variables (liquidity, macro/earnings, policy) defining A-share market, we believe: (1) liquidity will remain tight due to continuous financial deleverage, constraining banks’ off-balance-sheet wealth management products; (2) earnings growth will decelerate in 2H17, from a record-high 22% in 1Q17, as the low base effect fades along with the lagging impact of a slowing property market; and (3) policies likely remain muted before the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party.
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