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Macro backdrop turning more volatile：China’s economy in 2017 has beenquite different from that in 2014-16.While it exhibited a one-way movement inthe past three years（down in 2014-15 and up in 2016），it has become morevolatile this year.For instance，iron ore price，a good barometer of China’seconomy，jumped 20% in Jan and Feb，slumped 40% in the next threemonths，then surged 30% again.Unsurprisingly，the client enquiries wereceived recently concentrate on the upside risks（also see our latestmarketing feedback：Highest sentiment in two years）.However，with such amacro backdrop，investors should be cautious in extrapolating the existingtrend，and trading opportunities often arise when markets run ahead offundamentals.Regarding where we are in the cycle，we believe that therebound since June is a short-lived one amid a broad slowdown.Therecovery has already peaked in 1Q17 even though the pace ofdeceleration could vary from time to time.
20170801-MACQUARIE-STATE_OF_CHINA’S_ECONOMY：TWO_MACRO_PILLARS_OF_THE_MARKET_RE.pdf
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